Three Best Bets for Bears at Commanders

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: BEARS AT COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 5, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. 

My game of the week features the Chicago Bears (0-4) taking on the Washington Commanders (2-2). With both squads coming off losses in Week 4, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why. 

Related: NFL Week Four Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, October 5, 2023

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: Bears, 56%

Public Bets: Commanders, 63%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  October 4th, 2023.

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders – In-Season & Betting  Trends

Bears Hoping To Bounce Back From Heartbreaking Loss In Week 4

The Chicago Bears are winless through four games. They limp this matchup on a 14-game losing streak dating back to last season. The last time Chicago won a game was back in October of last year. 

Ouch. 

In the Bears’ last outing, they played as well as any team could through the first three quarters. Despite the near-perfect start, though, they ended up losing by a 31-28 margin against a Denver team that gave up 70 points against the Miami Dolphins. 

While the Bears’ offense finally came out of hibernation, producing its highest scoring output thus far, Chicago is still ranked 21st in total yards (305.3 YPG) and 22nd in scoring (18.8 PPG). On the other side of the ball, the Bears have the fifth-worse defense in the league, giving up (383.3 YPG) and their opponents are averaging 34.3 points per contest. The only team that has given up more than that is the Denver Broncos – who have allowed 37.5 points per outing. 

For the diehards out there, this “could” be the week Chicago finally breaks into the win column. But for the realists, it must be discouraging to see your team play its best game of the season and still come up short. I have a feeling that the losing streak will continue. 

Commanders Are Better, But Not By Much

Meanwhile, the Commanders posted wins in their first two games of the season, but have dropped their last two contests. This includes a loss to the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles last week. 

After leading 17-10 at halftime, the Commanders found themselves facing a 31-24 with 1:28 left in regulation. They rallied to send the game into overtime, before losing 34-31. 

From an offensive standpoint, Washington is ranked 20th in total yards (307.8 YPG) and 17th in scoring (22.3 PPG). Looking at the defensive metrics, the Commanders are ranked 17th in yards allowed per game (352.5) and 29th in scoring defense (30.0 PPG). 

A matchup featuring a pair of teams that have not been able to stop or slow down any opponent, this game could be a high-scoring affair.

The Picks

The Spread

The Commanders opened as a 4.5-point favorite. That line has moved to (-6). Although neither squad has been great against the spread, here is why I am going with the home team to cover.

• Chicago has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games overall (0-6-1). 
• The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven matchups against the Commanders. 
• Chicago is 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. 
• Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five October games. 

Prediction: Washington Commanders (-6)

Over/Under

The over/under total opened at 43. That line has moved slightly to 44.5. Here is a look at why betting on the OVER is the way to go.

• In the last five matchups between these teams, the projected 44.5-point total in this contest was eclipsed four times. 
• The OVER total has prevailed 12 times in Chicago’s last 15 games. 
• The OVER is 5-1 for Chicago in its last six road contests against Washington.

Prediction: OVER 44.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Fresh off his first 300-yard game as a Chicago Bear, my key player to watch is Justin Fields. He currently has -115 odds of passing for more than 193.5 yards and -115 odds of throwing for less than 193.5 yards. 

Fields has exceeded the 193.5 yards total for this contest in three of the team’s four games this season. Additionally, he is averaging 215.5 passing yards per contest. By no means is that anything to brag about, but these trends suggest why betting the over on Fields is a good play.

Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 193.5 yards