Thanksgiving Night Football: 49ers at Seahawks Expert Pick

THANKSGIVING NIGHT FOOTBALL 49ERS AT SEAHAWKS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION: The third and final game on Thanksgiving is in Seattle as the 49ers travel north to take on the Seahawks. The Seahawks are one game back from the 49ers for the NFC West division, so they should be highly motivated this Thursday. They have some injuries to overcome, but they will have the “12th man” behind them.

Related: Toby’s Week 11 Betting Recap and Thanksgiving Day Picks

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, 7:20 pm, November 23, 2023

Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: 49ers, 81%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  November 23rd, 2023.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have righted the ship since dropping three in a row. They beat the Buccaneers 27 to 14 last week and moved to 7-3. They lost safety Talanoa Hufanga for the season due to a torn ACL. Ray-Ray McCloud is questionable with an injury to his ribs. They should be healthy as a team heading into this game.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks lost to the Rams last week and fell to 6-4. It was a disappointing loss as they were up 16-7 entering the fourth quarter and would have them tied with the 49ers for first in the division. Kenneth Walker left the game with an oblique injury that has kept him out of practice all week. He is not a candidate for the injured reserve, but he will likely miss some time.

Geno Smith is also listed as questionable for Thursday but should play. He suffered a bruise to his triceps and has remained limited throughout the week in practice. DK Metcalf missed Tuesday’s practice with a toe injury and is questionable for Thursday.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Head-To-Head

There are some key offensive players with injury designations for the Seahawks, which could have them playing at a disadvantage. It seems Walker will miss this game, given the short week. Zach Charbonnet is the next man up. He averages 43% of snaps played per game this season but has played in at least 50% for four consecutive weeks.

During that time, Charbonnet has 30 carries for 152 yards plus 13 receptions for 56 yards. He faces a tough matchup this week as the 49ers only allow 81.4 rushing yards per game. The Seahawks likely need Metcalf if they want to compete in this game. The 49ers allow 221.4 passing yards per game and just lost one of their safeties.

The 49ers should be able to move the ball against this defense. The Seahawks allow 366.6 total yards and 21.8 points per game. Christian McCaffrey averages 4.7 yards per attempt this season and 8.5 yards per reception.

The Seahawks give up 43.9 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, which the 49ers should be able to exploit with McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel in the backfield. The 49ers are one of the best offenses at creating mismatches, and they have the star players that create separation. The Seahawks must make this a shootout if they want to win.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total for the game is 44 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which makes sense. I would take the under 44 and wait for the injury news to see if you get any value on the total.

Spread

The 49ers are -7 on the road in a tough place to play. It is hard to lay that number in this spot, even with the injuries to Seattle. Take the Seahawks at +7 despite the injuries.

Player Prop

McCaffrey is averaging 36.4 receiving yards per game, and the Seahawks allow 43.9 receiving yards to backs. His receiving yards total is 33.5, so I would take the over.