Texas vs. Texas A&M Expert Pick and Prediction – November 30, 2024

TEXAS VS. TEXAS A&M EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 30, 2024 — It’s all or nothing now for Texas A&M. If the Aggies beat their ancient rival Texas, they’ll play Georgia for the SEC title and have a shot at a top-four seed in the playoff. If they fail, their playoff hopes are over.

There’s no chance A&M can actually make the playoff as an at-large, as the Aggies already have three defeats. If they lose a fourth, they’re definitely out of the running.

Related: Big 12 Tiebreakers Explained

Texas is in a weird spot. The Longhorns get into the SEC title game with a win, but they’re probably still in the playoff with a loss. With so many teams taking a third loss, Texas being at two losses with its strength of schedule would be difficult to leave out. The Longhorns’ best case is to win here and then possibly steal the No. 2 seed from Georgia. Failing that, the Longhorns would likely need to be content playing a first-round game in Austin.

If Texas wins here and loses a close game to Georgia, it probably secures the No. 6 or No. 7 seed and plays a home game. If the Longhorns lose here, they’re likely on the road in the first round. That might not be the worst thing in the world, but if they drop to the wrong spot, they could find themselves facing a tough first-round game in an unfriendly weather location.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 30 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Texas vs. Texas A&M In-Season Trends

If you’ve been betting on Texas lately, you might not have much money left. The Longhorns have just one cover in their past five games, having won them all but only covered in a demolition of Florida. They have also struggled on the road in the SEC, barely escaping Vanderbilt and winning a low-scoring showdown with Arkansas.

Related: Pistols Misfiring: Why Oklahoma State is Struggling

A&M has been no better, but the Aggies do have two covers out of three at Kyle Field in SEC play. The Aggies have just three covers, but they destroyed Missouri and handled LSU with ease in their past two league home games. Texas A&M’s home crowd is real, and facing Texas for the first time in SEC play should increase that.

Weather

This is one of the few areas where it will be chilly but not frigid. Temperatures will sit in the mid 60s, making this an ideal night for football in the Lone Star State.

The Difference-Makers

Quinn Ewers and the offense have not been up to par as of late. The Longhorns have struggled in their past few games, which has made Texas appear vulnerable at the worst possible time. Texas just isn’t the same team it was earlier this year.

Related: UMass Mess: How Football Has Ruined Its Athletics

Marcel Reed has done a fine job of avoiding the costly mistake with only three interceptions. The Aggies don’t impress on offense, but they can win with defense as long as they don’t screw up.

The Pick

Texas A&M seems to be the definition of a home-field hero. The Aggies have played their best football in College Station, and that’s not likely to change. Texas A&M has waited to play this game since it was announced that Texas was joining the SEC, and the Aggies should be well motivated.

Texas just has too many questions to trust as the favorite. The Longhorns haven’t been the same team for weeks, and that looks like a problem here.