Texas vs. Michigan Expert Pick and Prediction – September 7, 2024

TEXAS VS. MICHIGAN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 7, 2024 — Texas showed it was back last season. Now the Longhorns have to prove that they’re here to stay. There aren’t many better ways to do that than beating the defending national champion on its home turf, and Texas has the pieces needed to do exactly that.

Michigan really didn’t look good last week against Fresno State. The Wolverines went from J.J. McCarthy to Davis Warren at quarterback, and so far, this is not going well. If not for an 86-yard pick-six by Will Johnson, Michigan could have had some very nervous moments in the final minutes.

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Texas’ offense looked good statistically in Week 1, as the Longhorns hammered Colorado State. But the way that Texas won that game exposes some problems. The Longhorns didn’t win by taking deep shots; they nickel-and-dimed Colorado State to death. Michigan is much more equipped to close off those routes and keep the Longhorns in front of them.

To get another big road win to start the year (remember, Texas beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa last year), Quinn Ewers is going to have to force the issue. He’s also going to have to avoid Johnson, as big plays might be Michigan’s best way to win this game.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, September 7 at Noon EST

Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 6th, 2024.

Texas vs. Michigan In-Season Trends

In general, fading Steve Sarkisian on the road is ill-advised. The Longhorns have won seven straight true road games, and they’ve not lost in an opposing stadium since falling to Oklahoma State in 2022. Texas also tends to cover in those games; the Horns have gone 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games.

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Michigan hasn’t lost a home game in more than three years now, dating back to the COVID-affected season. But these Wolverines aren’t the same team as that squad; Michigan still has several new pieces in place. It’s difficult to use the past to tell anything about this team.  

Weather

Here comes the fall weather. Temperatures will hit a high of 59 degrees, with winds of 15 miles per hour. No precipitation is expected, but these offenses aren’t really affected by weather anyway.

The Difference-Makers

Quinn Ewers is easily the biggest difference-maker on the field, as his play will be critical in whether the Longhorns can attack the Michigan defense. The Wolverines are built on making big plays and limiting opponents’ big moments, and Ewers will have to make the right decision and avoid mistakes.

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Kalel Mullings’ work on the ground kept Michigan in control against Fresno State. He’s going to have to do much more against Texas, however. He’ll probably also be facing a much tougher assignment, as Texas is likely to force Michigan to go to the air to beat it. Most likely, Michigan will look to him to stabilize things in the early going.

The Pick

The best bet is likely the under. Texas’ defense looked legitimate in Week 1, and Michigan’s defense is far ahead of its offense at this point. The Wolverines were honestly fortunate to avoid defeat in Week 1, and against a stronger opponent, they probably would have gotten beat.

Texas is that stronger opponent and isn’t going to be at all intimidated by the Big House. This appears to be a defensive struggle, and one that the Longhorns can and should win.