Texas vs. Arkansas Expert Pick – February 26, 2025
Texas and Arkansas will take the court in a meaningful game. John Calipari’s team projects to be one of the last four teams in the tournament, while Texas is barely in as one of the last teams to get a bye and not have to play in the play-in games. Both teams have had an up-and-down season in the SEC with identical records. They are both 16-11 and 5-9 in conference play. The first meeting between these teams was not close, but this one should be a battle with a lot on the line. Check out the Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks page. Read more Texas Tech vs. Arkansas expert pick.
Texas vs. Arkansas Head-To-Head
The first meeting this season was not as close as it seems. Arkansas won 78-70 at Texas, but Texas went on a run at the end to close the distance. Texas closed as 7.5-point favorites and lost outright.
Texas was down 35-24 at the end of the half, and Arkansas’ biggest lead was 23. Arkansas led 50-27 with 13 and a half minutes remaining, but Texas finished the second half beating them 43-28. Texas won the rebounding battle, 38 to 30, but only shot six of 22 (27%) from three. Arkansas shot 44% from the field and made 7 of 17 (41%) from three. Arkansas shot 27 of 35 from the line, and Texas shot 20 of 27 with a happy whistle.
Texas vs. Arkansas In-Season Trends
Texas is 4-4 against the spread as the away team this season, with an average margin of victory of -3.9 and -1.1 ATS. Arkansas is 7-8 ATS as the home team and 6-7 ATS as the home favorite. They are favored by 2.5 points tonight, with the total at 146.5. Texas is 1-4 in their last five games, with their lone win against Kentucky at home. Arkansas is 2-3 in their last five, beating LSU and Missouri at home. They are coming off a huge win, which should help their tournament resume, but this could be a letdown spot for them.
Texas is led by true freshman Tre Johnson, who averages 20.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. He leads the conference in points per game and will likely be highly valued in the upcoming NBA draft. Adou Thiero (15.6 ppg) and Boogie Fland (15.1 ppg) are the leading scorers for Arkansas, but Johnell Davis is their game-changer.
He transferred from Florida Atlantic University and has been playing well recently. He had 18 points against Missouri and 14 against Auburn. He averaged 18.2 points per game last season at FAU and is a defensive pest. He averages 1.4 steals per game but has 12 steals in his last four games. Arkansas averages 76.1 points per game, and Texas scores 78.3 per game.
The Pick
Texas will not shoot 27% from three like they did in their last meeting. They typically shoot 35.9% but must limit turnovers against this team. Arkansas likes to get out and run and averages 7.8 steals per game, while Texas turns the ball over 9.3 times a game. I expect Johnson to have a big night for them and not be afraid of taking big shots. He loves to have the ball in pivotal moments, which is unusual for a true freshman. Johnson and Arthur Kaluma should step up tonight in a meaningful matchup.
