Texas vs. Arizona State Expert Pick and Prediction – January 1, 2024

TEXAS VS. ARIZONA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 1, 2024 — Which version of Texas is going to show up in the Peach Bowl? Is it going to be the early season version of the Longhorns, who looked like they were going to carry the SEC? Or is it the version of Texas that couldn’t get out of its own way and kept turning the ball over?

The answer to that will decide which way this one’s going to go. Texas has looked very good for much of its first year in the SEC, but turnovers have been a problem for the Longhorns.

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Out of the eight remaining teams, none have turned the ball over more often than the Longhorns. Their two defeats to Georgia can be easily explained by that one stat: Texas turned the ball over seven times against the Bulldogs. Granted, the Longhorn defense also forced five of its own, so Texas usually makes it work.

But Arizona State isn’t the type of team that gives the ball away. The Sun Devils have the second-fewest turnovers of anyone in the playoff, and with Cam Skattebo in the backfield, they have the ability to control the clock if they get an early turnover and lead.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Wednesday, January 1 at 1 p.m.

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Texas vs. Arizona State In-Season Trends

Amazingly, Texas hasn’t covered in back-to-back games since SEC play began. That does speak to the league’s depth, but it also speaks to the Longhorns’ inconsistent nature. Sometimes, Texas looks like world-beaters, as it did when it whacked Florida in Austin. Other times, Texas looks very human, as happened in a narrow win over Vanderbilt.

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Arizona State has been a bettor’s dream. When the Sun Devils win, they cover. When they lose, they do not. In all 13 games ASU has played, it has matched spread result to game result. The Sun Devils have now cashed six in a row, with the last failure being a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati.

Weather

With temperatures in the 40s, the roof is closed.

The Difference-Makers

Cam Skattebo means so much to Arizona State. The Sun Devils rely on him for just about everything on the ground, and he’s usually delivered. Having him rested could make a big difference for ASU as it tries to keep the ball away from the Texas offense.

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Quinn Ewers’ inconsistent play has mirrored his team’s. When he takes care of the ball, the Longhorns are virtually impossible to beat. When he turns it over, the Longhorns are very beatable. How he handles this game against a defense that tends to prefer to force field goal attempts will go a long way.

The Pick

Arizona State has had a brilliant run, but it’s tough to see it continuing here. To win this game, ASU has to get an early turnover and take a quick lead. The Sun Devils are not built to come from behind; they’re best when they win the first quarter and control the game from there.

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Teams can run the ball on Texas, but the Longhorns are more likely to force the Sun Devils to open up the playbook to try to keep up. That doesn’t bode well for ASU’s chances. If the Sun Devils get desperate, the Longhorns will cover the number.