Texas Tech vs. TCU Expert Pick and Prediction – January 30, 2024

TEXAS TECH VS. TCU EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 30, 2024 — If you haven’t been paying attention to the Big 12, you might be surprised to see that Texas Tech’s sitting on top of the league.

The Red Raiders’ 5-1 mark in the conference seems a little soft, given that the one loss was a 23-point blowout at Houston and they barely escaped from Kansas State and Oklahoma. Texas Tech’s certainly not a bad team, but the idea that the Red Raiders are the Big 12’s best seems off.

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The books certainly aren’t buying, making Texas Tech a 5.5-point underdog going to TCU. And given that the Frogs handed Houston one of its two defeats, that makes sense. TCU hasn’t had a break at all in league play, as its two easiest games both came on the road. Three conference losses came by just seven points combined, meaning the Frogs are very much in the thick of the league race.

In a sense, this is a must-win situation for both teams. Texas Tech needs to prove that it’s a genuine contender, and TCU’s got to avoid falling three games behind the league leader. With Houston in the rearview mirror, the Frogs hold a key tiebreaker — if they can stay in position to use it.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, January 30 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas 

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: 59% on TCU

Public Money: 54% on TCU

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of January 30th, 2024.

Texas Tech vs. TCU In-Season Trends

Since league play started, Texas Tech has mostly meant offense. Houston, of course, was the exception because the Cougars slow everyone down, but for the most part, Texas Tech has been a good bet to get to 80 points. In the Red Raiders’ past eight games, they’ve hit 80 five times and came a basket short once.

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TCU has been far less consistent. About the only thing you can count on with the Frogs is that they’re going to play a close game. In seven league games, six have been decided by five points or less. The exception was the Oklahoma game, which the Frogs won by nine. Otherwise, TCU sticks with the good opponents and lets the lesser ones hang around. Say this for the Frogs: they are never boring.

The Difference-Makers

Consistency, thy name is not Jameer Nelson Jr. The senior guard has been anything but consistent this season, going for 30 points last time out against Baylor but scoring just nine combined in the Frogs’ previous two games. TCU needs better shooting from Nelson on a more consistent basis if it’s going to compete for a league title.

Warren Washington has to make himself a presence in this matchup. The Red Raiders aren’t a bad rebounding team, but they’re going up against a TCU squad that prioritizes the skill like nobody else. The Frogs are deadly on second chances, and if you can’t keep them off the glass, forget winning the game. Washington has to step up down low.

The Pick

I think TCU’s the better team, but I think the spread has gotten pushed beyond the point of value. Remember, the Frogs don’t blow out teams in their own league. They play close games, and I think they’re getting a couple points too many here.

I expect TCU to win the game, but the Frogs’ tendency of five points or less means I’m not backing them to cover this number. Despite the rebounding edge, I’m going with the Red Raiders.