Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 2, 2024

TEXAS TECH VS. IOWA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 2, 2024 — Maybe Matt Campbell should go on every talk show in the nation downplaying Iowa State’s expectations in future seasons. For whatever reason, when Campbell’s Cyclones play with no expectations, they’re one of the best teams in the Big 12. That’s playing out again this season, as the Cyclones are 7-0 and on track to meet BYU in the Big 12 title game.

A lot has to happen before the Cyclones can get to that game, but right now, they’re in good position. Iowa State managed to avoid most of the big hitters of the Big 12 schedule-wise, with only Kansas State being a real threat to their efforts. Texas Tech looked like it might have been a threat, but the shine has come off the Red Raiders after back-to-back defeats.

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The Red Raiders still have a chance to make a run at the Big 12 title game, but a lot would have to go right for them. Essentially, Texas Tech has to run the table. That’s not looking likely, not with a tough trip to Ames followed by a matchup with resurgent Colorado. Even the game with West Virginia at the end of the year looks difficult.

And the reason it looks so difficult is that the Red Raiders can’t stop anybody. The Texas Tech defense got shredded by Baylor, and the defense didn’t exactly look great in trying to bounce back against TCU. Even Abilene Christian managed to hang 51 points on this defense, which does not bode well for keeping the Cyclones in check.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 2 at 3:30 p.m. EST

Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State In-Season Trends

The win over UCF was the first time that Iowa State’s defense really faced trouble, although the score is a little misleading. The Cyclones’ 35 points conceded was the most that they’ve allowed all year. While the Knights managed a pick-six in that stretch, 28 still would have been a season high for Iowa State. It remains to be seen whether Iowa State’s performance was a one-off or if the Cyclones have something to worry about on that side of the ball.

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This matchup has been pretty cyclical, with the teams trading win streaks. The Cyclones have won three of the past four meetings in Ames, and they’ve broken 30 points in all three of those wins. Texas Tech did break through last time, but it did it in an un-Texas Tech like way. The Red Raiders won that game 14-10, but this Texas Tech team is not one that wins with defense.

Weather

Texas Tech is probably wishing it played in the MAC right now and not the Big 12. While the temperatures are pushing 80 early in the week, it’s going to fall to around 55 degrees by Saturday. With showers in the forecast, this weather favors Iowa State.

The Difference-Makers

The one thing about the weather that does help Texas Tech is that it has a good running back in Tahj Brooks. With 925 yards on the ground, Brooks is the kind of back who can keep the chains moving and keep the defense off the field.

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Iowa State’s not a great ground team, but it has a strong pass game and a solid receiver in Jaylin Noel. Noel averages almost 20 yards a catch, and he has the ability to break a game open.

The Pick

I’m not sure why the totals are low here. Maybe the books are counting on a resurgence of the Iowa State defense, maybe they’re looking at 2022 to try to make a prediction. Either way, it seems to be wrong based on Texas Tech’s weak defense.

The Cyclones might not be able to slow down Texas Tech enough to get the cover. But they might score enough to hit the over on their own.