Texans at Cowboys Expert Pick
The Governor’s Cup will be in prime time as the Texans travel to Arlington to play the Cowboys. The Cowboys lead the series against the Texans with a 4-2 record since the Texans’ inaugural season in 2002. They also lead the series 13-8, dating back to 1960 when the Oilers and the Cowboys played. These teams met last in 2022, and the Cowboys won that game 27-23. Dallas fans do not have much to cheer for but will turn out in droves to root against the cross-state rival. Read more Texans at Cowboys expert pick.
Houston Texans
The Texans lost to the Lions 26-23 last week and did not score in the second half. They allowed 19 unanswered points, including a game-winning field goal from Jake Bates. C.J. Stroud started the second half with two interceptions in the first three drives.
Wide receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) will return this week; his first game has been since week five. Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi (foot) will not play this week. Cornerbacks Kamari Lassiter (concussion) and Jeff Okudah (quad) are questionable.
Dallas Cowboys
Cooper Rush and the Cowboys were taken to the cleaners at home against the Eagles last week. They lost 34-6 and only managed 146 total yards with five turnovers. CeeDee Lamb only caught six passes for 21 yards.
Quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) is out, and Cooper Rush will start again. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (back) is questionable but logged a limited practice on Saturday. Cornerbacks DaRon Bland (foot) and Jourdan Lewis (neck) are out this week. Fullback Hunter Luepke (calf) is doubtful after not practicing this week. Guard Zack Martin (shoulder) is questionable but was limited in practice on Friday and Saturday.
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Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys Head-To-Head
It is hard to get behind a team led by Cooper Rush. Rush had two yards per attempt last week and 45 passing yards. They looked awful as a team, including the defense on the field for 34 minutes. I do not see how they have any success this week. The Texans have allowed the third-fewest yards per game (288) and the fourth-fewest passing yards (174.7). They also have a +7 turnover differential with 13 interceptions. Rush will have a long day, especially if Lamb does not play.
The Cowboys have the third-worst turnover differential (-10) and 18 giveaways this season. They have only forced eight turnovers this season and have allowed the second-most points per game (28.8). C.J. Stroud is having a bit of a sophomore slump because of his line. They have allowed the third-highest pressure rate this season. He will get Nico Collins back this week and should torch this secondary. Joe Mixon has scored in five straight games and has been one of the best off-season acquisitions for any team. He should have another big game, especially if the Texans take an early lead. The Cowboys allow the second-most rushing yards per game with 152.1.
Prediction
Over/Under
The Cowboys’ offense is underwhelming, to put it mildly, and could only muster six points last week. The Texans could score a bunch, but I think they will jump to an early lead and lean on Mixon to run the clock. Under 41
Spread
I do not love the total or the spread in this game. I think the Texans will cover, but the Texans will be drawing the majority of the bets. Texans -7
Player Prop
I have the most confidence in Joe Mixon’s props in this matchup. He has a golden matchup, and the game script should favor him getting 25+ rushing attempts. I will ladder his rushing yards up to 120 yards, which is +255 on DraftKings. Joe Mixon Over 86.5 Rushing Yards -120
