TCU vs. West Virginia Expert Pick and Prediction – February 25, 2025

TCU VS. WEST VIRGINIA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 25, 2025 — It’s a nervous time for West Virginia fans right now. While being on the bubble was an achievement compared to where this team was predicted to start the year, reality’s now set in for how tough this is going to be.

The Mountaineers have two results to worry about: their own and Utah’s. The reality is there isn’t a lot on the West Virginia resume away from Morgantown, and with Kansas in free fall, the Mountaineers’ best road win is quickly losing its luster. Currently, only the Jayhawks and Cincinnati count as Quad 1 road wins for WVU, which is why they need Utah to stay above the top-75 cut line. If the Utes lose their next two games, next week’s visit to Salt Lake City would be just another Quad 2 game that won’t be much help.

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Before West Virginia can consider that, it has to do the job at home against TCU. The Frogs are in the same boat as West Virginia: strong resume at home, but next to nothing away. Their big win was Baylor, and their second-best win was at Arizona State. TCU tripped up West Virginia by five in Fort Worth, and a sweep would go a long way toward getting the Frogs back in the conversation.

There’s more: both teams are desperate to stay out of the 8/9 game. There’s a sense for both teams — TCU especially — that they’ll need at least two wins in Kansas City to feel safe on Selection Sunday. And in a tournament situation, the last thing a desperate team wants is to get fed to a rested Houston, which is exactly what the 8/9 winner would get in the quarterfinals. So as far as the Big 12 goes, both teams need this one badly.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, February 24 at 9 p.m.

Where: WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, W. Va. 

TV: CBS Sports Network

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

TCU vs. West Virginia In-Season Trends

TCU has been a thorn in West Virginia’s side for the past couple seasons, having won four straight against the Mountaineers. The Frogs even broke their losing streak in Morgantown the last time they came to West Virginia, scoring a 93-81 victory over the Mountaineers a year ago. Even with that, the home team has won seven of the past nine meetings.

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Offense hasn’t traveled for TCU, which fits well with West Virginia’s recent defensive prowess at home. Four of the Mountaineers’ past five in Morgantown have played to the under, while TCU has failed to break 63 points in four of its past five road contests.

The Difference-Makers

Jonathan Powell can’t shoot 1-for-9 again if West Virginia is going to get a win. Powell didn’t do much of anything from behind the arc in the first game, and another poor showing would spell doom.

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Noah Reynolds and Vasean Allette did almost all of the scoring for TCU in the first meeting. Getting someone else to step up along with them would go a long way toward completing the sweep.

The Pick

The Frogs are the more desperate team, but the rim game favors West Virginia. The Mountaineers have an advantage in the paint, and that’s the one spot on offense that favors either side.

Expect a low-scoring rock fight here, but West Virginia makes more sense as the play.