TCU vs. Baylor Expert Pick and Prediction – March 2, 2025

TCU VS. BAYLOR EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 2, 2025 — Can TCU come up big a second time? Last time, the Frogs ended a 37-game losing streak against Baylor and made it look easy for three quarters, building a lead that reached 20 points before the Bears’ desperate comeback.

This time, Baylor’s at home, and the Bears know what they’ve got to do differently: stop TCU from going lights-out behind the arc. The Frogs shot 60% from deep in that game, and when they weren’t scoring from outside, Sedona Prince took over inside.

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But that kind of shooting percentage usually isn’t sustainable, nor does Baylor expect to struggle as badly as it did in Fort Worth. The Bears seemed almost shell-shocked that TCU could play with them after decades of dominance. But while the Frogs have been the new power of the league, Baylor hasn’t given up its crown just yet. The Bears have not lost since that game in Fort Worth, and they’ve been building up to this rematch.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, March 2 at 6:30 p.m.

Where: Foster Pavilion, Waco, Texas

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

TCU vs. Baylor In-Season Trends

Is TCU as good as its record says, or are the Frogs simply untested in their new role as a favorite? TCU has taken a loss since the Baylor game, falling at Kansas State. And otherwise, TCU has barely been tested, with the only real tough opponent in that stretch being West Virginia. The Frogs easily dispatched the Mountaineers, but it’s tough to say if that was a blip on the radar or a real sign that TCU is for real.

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Baylor seems to have taken its defensive failures in Fort Worth to heart. Since that game against TCU, only BYU has managed to break 70 on the Bears. Baylor has also hit the gas on the regular: only Texas Tech has managed to keep the deficit to single digits against the Bears since the TCU game.

The Difference-Makers

Sarah Andrews was awesome for Baylor in the first meeting; her teammates, not so much. Darianna Littlepage-Buggs in particular needs to do more on offense than just rebound teammate misses. She was a monster on the glass with 14 rebounds, but she also shot 1-for-8 and didn’t do much with her possession of the ball.

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Prince isn’t likely to get stopped inside, but Madison Conner isn’t a guarantee to hit 50% of her 3-pointers again. That’s the less sustainable of TCU’s weapons, and stopping her likely changes the equation for TCU.

The Pick

Baylor really should have been in a better position to win in Fort Worth. The Bears can win if they can slow down the TCU attack, and they know it.

TCU was playing with house money last time against Baylor. That’s not the case now; they’re expected to win to nail down the league title. That’s probably not going to go as well for them.