Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Odds, Prediction – January 21, 2024

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. DETROIT LIONS ODDS, PREDICTION – Baker Mayfield led the Buccaneers to victory in the wild-card round, and they had to travel to Detroit.

Related: Celtics vs. Rockets Expert Pick  – January 21st, 2024

There has been snowfall in Detroit over the last couple of days, but luckily this game will be in a dome, per usual. The weather should not play a factor, but the fans will. The stadium was filled hours before kickoff last week, and the same is expected this week for another home playoff game.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, January 21 at 3 p.m. EST

Where: Ford Field, Detroit

TV: NBC

Public Bets: 52% on Tampa Bay

Public Money: 62% on Detroit

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of January 20th, 2024.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers smoked the Eagles last week, 32 to nine. They have a few players with questionable tags. Linebacker Shaquil Barrett missed the first two practices of the week but was a limited participant on Friday due to an ankle injury.

Chris Godwin (knee/personal) missed two practice sessions this week but logged a limited practice Thursday and does not have an injury designation. Running back Chase Edmonds (toe) logged a limited practice on Friday and is questionable to play on Sunday.

Detroit Lions

The Lions beat the Rams last week, 24 to 23, and won the franchise’s first playoff game in 32 years. Wide receiver Kalif Raymond has been ruled out due to a knee injury.

He averages 31% of snaps and 2.6 targets per game and is the punt returner. Donovan Peoples-Jones should see an increase in snaps and will take over punt return duties. Sam LaPorta (knee) was limited on Thursday and Friday and carries a questionable tag into this game.

He played through this injury last week and should play again. Linebacker James Houston (ankle) is the only defensive player with an injury designation after being activated from the injured reserve. He will be a game-time decision on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Head-To-Head

Lions’ fans were starved for a playoff win and finally got one after 32 years. They received another home game thanks to the Buccaneers upsetting the Eagles last week. Rams’ players have warned the Buccaneers about the fans in Ford Field by saying it was the loudest they have ever heard. They should have a system to get everyone on the same page, but the noise will undoubtedly affect the outcome.

These teams met in week six, with the Lions winning 20 to six. The Lions controlled the ball for 36 and a half minutes, compared to 23 and a half for the Buccaneers. They have done that all season to most teams and probably control the game again on Sunday. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 124 yards and a TD in that game and should be heavily involved.

The Buccaneers’ defense must be prepared for the Lions’ balanced attack. They are top-five in rushing yards (135.9), passing yards (258.9), and points per game (27.1).

The Buccaneers struggle defending the pass but have kept teams from scoring this season. They only allow 95.3 rushing yards per game, which is fifth league-wide. They also have a +8 turnover differential, with 26 takeaways (13 fumbles, 13 interceptions). The Lions need to protect the ball, especially ball carriers, as the Lions have lost 11 fumbles this season.

The Lions’ weakness on defense is in their secondary. They have allowed 247.4 passing yards per game, which is twenty-seventh. It is also a big reason they allow 23.2 points per game.

Their run defense has been one of the best in the league, though. The Buccaneers average the fewest rushing yards per game (88.8), so the Lions’ front seven should stifle Rachaad White. He averages 4.1 targets and 32.3 receiving yards per game, so he will make his presence felt in other ways. The Lions’ secondary played better last week, with the addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but still allowed 357 passing yards to Matthew Stafford and the Rams.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total is 49.5 on DraftKings and would take the under 49.5. These teams are playing well on offense, but both defenses have stepped up in the past few weeks.

Spread

The Lions are -6 at home, but I would take the Buccaneers +6. They go as Baker Mayfield goes and has been tremendous for most of the season. I expect him to have another solid game against this weak secondary.

Player Prop

Mike Evans only had 49 yards in their first meeting. He had four receptions but received 10 targets. Mayfield did not have a good game but should play better this time. Evans caught three balls for 48 yards last week, but his yardage total went up two yards. The sportsbooks know he has a good matchup, and I agree. Take his over 71.5 receiving yards and watch him burn this secondary.