Syracuse vs. UNLV Expert Pick and Prediction – October 4, 2024

SYRACUSE VS. UNLV EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 4, 2024 — September is over, and historically, that’s been bad for Syracuse. September Syracuse has been a thorn in its opponents’ sides, which was why the Orange were regularly able to win five to seven games a season.

However, whether it was the change in season or the fact that the ACC is tougher than what Syracuse scheduled in the non-conference, the Orange could not sustain it. And that led to Syracuse falling on its face the rest of the way and the end of Dino Babers’ time in upstate New York.

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Of course, this year, not even September Syracuse might have been able to handle UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels have their sights set on the College Football Playoff, and they just might be good enough to pull it off. Even after an NIL controversy led to the transfer of their starting quarterback, the Rebels kept rolling. With Matt Sluka quitting the team over NIL money, UNLV went out and forced four turnovers and blitzed Fresno State 59-14.

Outside of the Oregon State-Boise State double, the schedule sets up well for UNLV to have a shot to run the table. If they do, the Rebels would get the automatic bid to the CFP, something nobody in Las Vegas would have seriously bet on ever happening.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, October 4 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 30th, 2024.

Syracuse vs. UNLV In-Season Trends

UNLV is the rare mid-major that does exactly what you want it to do as a bettor. When the Rebels cover, they win the game outright. When they lose, they also fail to cover. Over the past 10 games, UNLV’s game result has matched its spread result every time.

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September Syracuse might win games, but it hasn’t been covering. Only against Georgia Tech — and only after the Yellow Jackets beat Florida State before the Seminoles’ crash — have the Orange managed to cover the number. In their other three games, they failed to cover any of them, even while winning twice.

Weather

There’s no weather to speak of in the Raiders’ dome.

The Difference-Makers

Hajj-Malik Williams isn’t the same kind of quarterback as Sluka was, and that’s fine. He makes plays with both his arm and his legs, giving Syracuse something extra to worry about. The rest of the Rebels are talented on both sides of the ball, and as long as Williams plays like he did against Fresno State, this team is still in fine shape.

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Kyle McCord is going to attack the UNLV secondary often. He’s thrown for 14 touchdowns against five interceptions, which speaks to his high-risk, high-reward strategy. If the UNLV secondary can handle it, the Rebels will have some short fields. If not, UNLV could have problems.

The Pick

UNLV’s win was a big boost to a team that needed it. The Rebels could have fallen apart after losing Sluka, but they seem to have united around each other and stuck with what has worked to this point. UNLV can see its goals, and a 4-0 start has them right on track now.

September Syracuse is worth a bet. October Syracuse isn’t someone I want to trust. I need to see more from Fran Brown’s team before I back them in a game like this.