Suns vs. Mavericks Expert Pick – March 5, 2023

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-To-Head & Betting Trends

In 2020-21 and 2021-22, the Suns swept the season series 3-0. The Mavericks earned a measure of revenge, though, knocking off the Suns in Game 7 of last year’s conference semifinals by a 123-90 margin. There was a bunch of chirping back and forth between the two teams during that series, which means there is no love lost on either side. 

Phoenix took the first meeting of the season between these teams on Oct. 19, escaping with a 107-105 victory. However, the Mavericks took the next two contests to the tune of 130-111 on Dec. 5 and 99-95 on Jan. 26. Given the fact that both units look a bit different since their last encounter, it will be interesting to see how these teams perform in this matchup and for the rest of the season as well.

The Picks

Over/Under

The opening O/U total was 231. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 233.5. These two teams are averaging a combined 226.6 points per contest. 

The UNDER has a 4-1 mark in the Suns’ last five road games and a 6-2 record in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. Dallas is 33-31. 

The UNDER holds a 5-2 record in the Suns’ last seven after allowing 100 or more points in the previous outing. The Sixers scored 126 points on Thursday night. 

Lastly, the UNDER is 5-2 in the Suns’ last seven road games and 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last six instances in which they’ve played on two days of rest. It is also important to remember that the predicted 233.5 points total has only been reached once in the previous six meetings between these two ball clubs. That said, it is safe to go with the UNDER in this one. 

Spread

The Mavericks opened as a consensus one-point favorite. That line has moved to 1.5. 

Phoenix is 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games overall, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games in which their opponent scored more than 100 points in its previous outing. The Mavericks put up 133 points against Philly.

The Suns hold a 4-1-1 mark ATS in their last six instances in which they’ve allowed more than 100 points. Chicago produced 104 points on Friday night. Phoenix is also 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games in which its opponent allowed more than 100 points in its previous outing. The Mavs gave up 126 points to the Sixers. 

Phoenix holds a 7-2 record ATS in its last nine Sunday games, and a 9-4 record ATS in its last 13 games that were played on one day of rest. Based on these metrics, I’m going with the Suns to cover (+1.5).

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in this contest is Mavericks forward Luka Doncic. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 32.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 32.5. 

Doncic has played against the Suns 20 times in his career. He is averaging 25.1 points per contest. However, in two of his last three games against the Suns, he scored 35 and 33 points, respectively. Additionally, Doncic is averaging 33.1 points per contest over his last 10 outings. Let’s also remember that he is averaging a career-best 33.4 points per game this season. 

That said, I’m going with Doncic to go OVER the 32.5 points total.