Sugar Bowl Prediction
On Jan. 1st at 8:45pm the Bulldogs and the Fighting Irish will kick off in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl with the winner to face either Boise State or Penn. State in the next round of the playoffs. Read more Sugar Bowl prediction below.
These two teams have faced off three times in their history. The first was the 1981 Sugar Bowl where Herschel Walker led the Dawgs to a national championship in a 17-10 victory. The second was in 2017, where UGA squeaked by Notre Dame in South Bend with a 20-19 victory in Jake Fromm’s first career start. Most recently, the Dawgs beat the Irish in Athens in a 23-17 win in 2019.
Now under head coach Marcus Freeman, the Irish will look to change the pattern in this match up. They may just have the pieces to do it this year behind a stingy defense and a formidable run game,
Riley Leonard
QB Riley Leonard, a Duke transfer, is under center for the game. Leonard has been solid, but not spectacular this season. He can make the throws that you need, but probably won’t light anybody up with his arm. He’s efficient and generally takes care of the ball, but has only eclipsed the 200 yard mark in passing yards 5 times this year, with only one of those coming against a ranked opponent. That has earned them 101st in passing this year. Leonard can also make plays with his legs though, and Georgia has been awful at stopping mobile QBs this season. Leonard even managed to run for over 100 yards twice this year. Sure, the opponents were awful, but the point stands that he’s far from a statue. UGA must respect his ability to extend plays and run for yards in their offensive system.
Leonard is most effective throwing off of play action passes due to RB Jordan Love’s ability to command the attention of defenses. Love has home-run hitting potential every time he touches the ball, his 98-yard burst for a score against IU a prime example of his ability. His 16 rushing TDs this year combine with back up Jadarian Price’s 7. Price is no slouch himself, but won’t put the same degree of fear into defenders as Love.
Notre Dame doesn’t have any receivers that terrify opponents. Their leading receiver is Beaux Collins who has under 500 yards this year. He never broke the century mark and only had 18 yards against IU. They’ll work in their tight end as a regular target in their offense.
The Irish Defense
Defensively, Notre Dame has one of the statistically strongest defenses in the nation. Their secondary is legit and Watts is a great safety. They play a ton of single high safety with man coverage on the outside. They operate with a basic belief that their dudes can go one-on-one in coverage against your dudes, so they can dedicate more bodies to the box to stop the run.
They aren’t afraid to bring 5 guys in pressure, whether it’s one of the LBs or even a safety to stop the run. They are great at disguising blitzes. In fact, if I was Notre Dame, I would put a ton of pressure on Stockton, who showed a propensity to panic when pressured against Texas. Force him to make errant throws.
DL Riley Mills was the best defensive lineman for Notre Dame, but will miss this game due to an injury against Indiana. His loss is significant for Notre Dame’s ability to stop UGA from running the ball.
The interior of the Irish defense isn’t huge, and the fear that Irish fans should have is that UGA’s offensive line will be able to displace the Notre Dame defensive line, allowing the UGA running game to get what it wants. This is perhaps the most important matchup in this game, Georgia’s o-line vs. the Irish d-line. But this Irish defense has been dominant this year behind DC Al Golden. They may not have all the size you’ll see in the SEC, but they play big and are tough.
UGA
The story for UGA is that they roll out Gunner Stockton for his first career start in the Sugar Bowl. Stockton led UGA in a come-from-behind victory over Texas in the SEC Championship.
The big question for UGA is what will the drop off be from Carson Beck to Gunner Stockton? Stockton was more efficient at leading the offense against Texas than Beck was. However, Stockton’s average yards per throw is scary. He did not take shots downfield, which allows defenses to sneak up, stop the run, and not get beat deep. If, and so far this is a BIG if, Stockton can keep the Irish defense honest with some deep throws, the offense should be cooking. If not, UGA will likely have to scrap and claw for every first down unless the offensive line is just flat out dominant.
UGA is getting a healthy Trevor Etienne back in the backfield. He was able to have a huge game against Texas and has now had 3 weeks to recover from his rib injury. He and Nate Frazier make as dangerous of a 1-2 punch as just about anyone in the nation. UGA did lose two backup RBs to another injury in the break in Rodrick Robinson and Branson Robinson. They both have missed the majority of the year as it is, but once again, UGA will lack depth at RB.
The Tight Ends
I think the TE room has a chance to have a massive game this week. The play action passing to Oscar Delp, Lawson Luckie, and Ben Yurosek has the potential to be a game-changer. Luckie and Delp made the big plays with Stockton against Texas and I think Mike Bobo dials up plays for them again.
Dawg Defense
Defensively, UGA is getting healthy, but have been inconsistent this year. At times, the defense looks like the most dominant unit in the country. The two games against Texas and the game against Tennessee were fine examples. Other times, the defense can’t stop a thing even against lesser opponents, like against Georgia Tech and Mississippi State.
The secondary in particular has been vulnerable this year. DB Daniel Harris gets picked on quite a bit. UGA has two good to great players in Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson at safety. They also rotate in freshman KJ Bolden who has been a solid rotational player this year. UGA’s defensive line has been stout most of this year, with flashes of dominance. DL Mykel Williams is a problem and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Christen Miller, and Warren Brinson all have had moments or games where they have taken over.
Smael Mondon leads the linebackers, and he’s an NFL talent. CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson come in alongside him. OLB Chaz Chambliss will need to have a big game containing the run and pressuring the QB.
X Factors
Georgia punter Brett Thorsen is out for this game. He was one of, if not the best, in the nation this year, and UGA will turn to a freshman in a game that could very well demand a lot of punting from Georgia’s offense. Notre Dame isn’t afraid of fakes on special teams, but their kicker is not consistent.
Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.
Brian’s Pick
The line on this one is currently 1.5 favoring UGA. The unknown variable in Gunner Stockton makes this matchup really interesting. These offenses should look similar to each other, with each team having two dynamic backs, QBs that are more than willing to run. Neither are dynamic, both get tough yards. Both defenses are strong and athletic.
So I don’t expect a high-scoring game, as scoring drives likely will be long. I think Notre Dame’s path to success is containing the run and making sure Gunner never gets comfortable. UGA has to stretch the field on offense while still establishing the run. They have to force RIley Leonard to beat them, not Love. Ultimately, I trust Kirby Smart and UGA, who will have more depth and more experience coaching in big games, even with a backup QB.
