Steelers vs. Raiders Expert Pick and Prediction – September 24, 2023

STEELERS VS. RAIDERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 24, 2023 — The Sunday Night game slated for Week Three is a tale of two teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers will take their anemic offense to Sin City to face a Raiders team that can’t quite figure out how to tackle. One of the teams is going to solve their weaknesses and right the schematic ship while the other will feel the unique embarrassment of a Sunday Night failure.

The Vegas oddsmakers seem to be leaning towards a Raiders resurgence on defense. Vegas opened a small favorite and that line has grown to -3 at the time of this writing.

Related: Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Expert Pick

Will Matt Canada remain on the hotseat for his offensive’s woes in Pittsburgh or will the Raiders’ soft zone continue to be as weak as a cheesecloth? Who the hell knows, but it should be fun.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 24th at 8:20 EDT

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

TV: NBC

Public Bets: 51% on Pittsburgh

Public Money: 58% on Las Vegas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 23rd, 2023

Steelers vs. Raiders In-Season Trends

The Steelers are coming off a short week after an ugly win on Monday night against the Cleveland Browns. PFF ranks Pittsburgh’s offense as the worst in the league with an overall offensive score of 45.9, the only score below 50 in the rankings. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in 1^st down conversion percentage (19%) and, while Pickett has thrown for 454 yards this year, his completion percentage is 60%.

Las Vegas has had the opposite problem. The Raiders ranks 22^nd in PFF’s overall defensive rankings. They struggle to produce any pressure on the quarterback and have been near the bottom of the league in run defense.

As with many of Josh McDaniels’ teams, the offense has been much of the focus. The Raiders’ offense has generated plenty of production through the air.

Jimmy Garropolo is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt, a marked difference from his years in San Francisco when he preferred the check down. If the Raiders want to win this game, they will need to do so by setting the pace, scoring quickly, and forcing Matt Canada’s Steelers’ offense to rely on Kenny Pickett’s less-than-reliable arm.

The Difference-Makers

Steelers’ tight end, Matt Freiermuth, has had an abysmal start to the season. He’s nabbed two receptions for five yards and one touchdown.

This is a bad start for the Steelers’ tight end. In 2022, he recorded 63 receptions on 98 targets for 732 yards. The Raiders play a soft zone coverage and allow a lot of room for tight ends to work across the middle. If Pickett can target Freiermuth, he should have a big game.

Davante Adams might miss his best friend, Derek Carr, but he’s still eating well in this Raiders offense. Adams is averaging six receptions and 75 yards in each of his two games this year. He has one touchdown in that span.

However, Vegas will face a strong Steelers pass rush, which could cause Jimmy G’ to catch checkdown fever. The Raiders should utilize Josh Jacobs more in this game and, even though Adams is always a deep ball threat, I don’t think he’ll have a huge game.

Weather

The Raiders play in a dome and I’m sure the air conditioning will be working.

The Pick

The narrative around this game goes like this: the Steelers’ offense is so bad that even a leaky Raiders’ secondary doesn’t give Pittsburgh much of a chance.

But this is a flawed way of thinking, as we are still in the over-reaction mode of the NFL handicapping world. The Steelers have faced two terrific defenses so far and the offense will begin to improver as the season moves on.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s defensive line will cause problems for a Raiders’ offense that can implode at any time.

I like the catching three points on a key number with the Steelers and I would even play it down to one if you wanted. This is the game Kenny Pickett flashes, finds Freiermuth, and keeps paces with the Vegas offense.