Stars vs. Knights Expert Pick – May 19, 2023

STARS VS. KNIGHTS EXPERT PICK – MAY 19. 2023 — It’s rare to get to this point in the playoffs and see both teams facing goaltending questions, but that’s what we’ve got as the Western Conference Finals get going.

Vegas turned to Adin Hill against the Oilers in the second round, and the young netminder stepped up by lifting the Golden Knights to wins in Game 5 and Game 6. But Hill hasn’t done anything beyond the past four games, and it’s unclear if he’s ready to stand up to the pressure of a conference final.

Things are no more certain in Dallas, as Jake Oettinger hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory during this postseason. Only Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck have allowed more soft goals this postseason, and both of them are on the golf course already. But the Stars do have a solid edge in the faceoff circle, as they’ve won 57% of their draws in the postseason and have set themselves up with an early edge.

But is that enough against a Vegas squad that’s clearly a step up from Minnesota and Seattle? The Stars barely survived seven with the Kraken despite clearly being the superior side. The Golden Knights are far more experienced than Seattle and aren’t likely to give Dallas a chance to get back in the series if the Stars make mistakes this time around.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Friday, May 19th at 8:30 p.m. EDT

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Public Bets: 68% on Vegas

Public Money: 70% on Vegas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 18th, 2023

Dallas vs. Vegas In-Season Trends

It’s been rare to see goals in this matchup. When the teams met in the Western finals three years ago, five of six games finished with five goals or fewer, and three out of six finished with just three goals. The netminders are different from the year in the bubble, but the goals still haven’t been coming. In four meetings this season, the teams combined for just 17 goals, hitting the UNDER all four times.

Dallas also won all four meetings between the teams, with thee decided by a single goal. Close games have also reigned supreme in this matchup: four of six playoff games and 11 of the past 13 meetings have been decided by one goal. If you want to play this conservatively, backing the underdog on the puckline is likely a great option.

Players to Watch

Dallas dominated the regular season series because of Oettinger, which is the same reason the Stars were so strong in the regular season period. Oettinger isn’t at the top of his game right now, which has to change in a hurry if the Stars are going to last in this series. Vegas simply gets too many contributions from across the ice for Dallas to withstand subpar goaltending. Oettinger has to be at his best if Dallas is going to win this series.

Vegas changed the series in Game 3 when Jonathan Marchessault got rolling, as he’s now scored eight points in four games after notching just two in the first seven. The Golden Knights didn’t need him to get by Winnipeg, but having that third option behind Jack Eichel and Mark Stone made a real difference against Edmonton. They need that to continue from Marchessault in this series.

The Pick

Vegas has struggled all year with Dallas, but that’s because of Oettinger, who isn’t playing his best hockey right now. If the Stars aren’t getting the play they need from the blue line and the goaltender, they’re not going to last very long in this series.

Until Oettinger shows that he can do the job against a stronger attack than Minnesota or Seattle, the value lies with the Knights.

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