Stanley Cup Finals Game 4: Golden Knights vs. Panthers Pick

STANLEY CUP FINALS GAME 4: GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS. PANTHERS PICK – The Panthers are still breathing after pulling out another overtime winner. The one thing the Panthers know how to do better than anyone is go through overtime, as they’ve won seven out of 13 victories in an extra session. They’re 7-0 in the extra periods, so even though they’ve lived dangerously, they’ve done the job very well in tight situations.

What they haven’t done well in this series is special teams, which is why Vegas is still in fine position to close this series down. The Golden Knights haven’t given up a goal on either the power play or shorthanded this series after getting torched pretty good against Edmonton and Dallas.

They found two power play goals of their own last time out, and it’s clear that not only are they getting chances against the Panthers with the man advantage, but they’re making them count.

That’s not sustainable long-term for Florida. The Panthers have to either close down the Vegas man advantage, stop giving up so many power plays or get a few power play goals of their own. If they can’t do any of the three, this series will be in prime position to end on Tuesday in Nevada.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Saturday, June 10th at 8:00 p.m. EDT

Where: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, Fla.

Public Bets: 69% on Vegas

Public Money: 71% on Vegas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 7th, 2023

Vegas vs. Florida In-Season Trends

The Panthers got the hot start they needed in Game 3, and now it’s Vegas who needs to come out firing. The Golden Knights are still very much in control of the series, but they absolutely do not want to have to make a trip back to Florida if they don’t have to do it. If they win Game 4, they’ll have the chance to close things out on home ice and make Sunday’s trip home their last flight of the season.

That’s why the first period is again the way to go with expecting goals. The teams are now up to 11 of 13 times where the first period has seen at least two goals, and it’s pretty likely that both teams come out looking for the early marker. 

However, big numbers might not be so certain after the first 20 minutes. Last time out, the teams scored two goals in 20 minutes and then combined for three goals the rest of the night. This might be the time to live bet this and take the UNDER after the teams have had a chance to get going early.

Players to Watch

The Conn Smythe Trophy race is now down to three players, barring something weird. If Vegas wins the Cup and it’s anyone but Jonathan Marchessault holding the Smythe, something’s gone seriously wrong with the votes. Marchessault scored yet again in Game 3, putting home another goal and an assist to make himself part of both Vegas goals on the night. At this point, backing him to score is an auto-bet until he doesn’t find the net.

Matthew Tkachuk kept his head on straight in Game 3, and the Panthers were better for it. With an empty net behind him, Tkachuk came up with the game-tying goal at a time when the Panthers could have see their season just about finished. Tkachuk scored two points last time out, and he’s likely to be a factor again.

The Pick

It’s weird to run back the same exact plays for another playoff game, but that’s what I’m going to do here because two of the three cashed and one very nearly did. The OVER looks like a good move for the first period, and I’m going to ride the Marchessault horse until it dies.

As for the result, I think the Golden Knights bounce back here and put this series on the brink.