Spain vs. France Expert Pick and Prediction – July 9, 2024

SPAIN VS. FRANCE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 9, 2024 — Can rusty and dull actually win a tournament based on sheer talent? That’s the bet France has made, as Didier Deschamps’ side are somehow into the semifinals. France has completely embraced the idea that the other side can’t win if they never score, giving up just one goal in five matches. Les Bleus only have three goals to their name, and none have come from a French foot or head in open play. Only against Poland did France actually put one in the net, and that off a Kylian Mbappe penalty. Besides that, France’s other two goals have flown into the net off their opponent.

But they’re still here, and that means they’re still dangerous. As poor as France have been in this tournament in attack, the defense is rock-solid. Five of their past six matches have been clean sheets, and the one exception was when Poland notched a penalty.

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Spain is at the other end of the spectrum. La Furia Roja have played with passion, joy and excitement from the opening minute. They’ve scored 11 goals, the most in the tournament. Despite their aggression and pace, they didn’t give up a goal until Georgia deflected one in during the round of 16. Even in the face of that mistake, Spain was steel, putting home four the rest of the way to end the Cinderella story.

The Spanish got here three years ago, only to fall to Italy on penalties. Two more wins would give Spain its fourth European title, setting a new record. This side is motivated, and if France doesn’t raise its game quickly, it’s hard to see the French coming out ahead.

Kickoff

Teams: Spain vs. France

When: Tuesday, July 9 at 3 p.m. EST

Where: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

TV: FS1

Spread: Spain 0/France 0

Moneyline: Spain +175/France +210/Draw +175

To Advance: Spain -120/France -105

Totals: Over 1.5 (-195)/Under 1.5 (+155)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 9th, 2024 

Scouting Spain 

Spain’s scoring isn’t a fluke by any means. The Spanish possess the ball well and have regularly generated high-value scoring chances. Based on xG, Spain would have been expected to score 10.3 goals to date, so there’s been nothing soft about their goals.

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The big question is whether a young side can handle the pressure as it gets deeper into this contest. The Spanish only have six players on the wrong side of 30, and they’ve reached down into the teenage ranks for attacker Lamine Yamal. So far, Spain hasn’t cracked under the pressure, but the Spaniards also didn’t have the toughest test leading up to this moment. Their group featured aging Croatia, directionless Italy and an Albania side happy to be here, and the knockouts have included Georgia and a Germany side in a flux. France represents the toughest test they’ve faced by a healthy margin.

Scouting France

There’s a real sense that this is it for France, at least as far as its older generation is concerned. The French have had plenty of success with this group, winning the 2016 Euros and the 2018 World Cup and just barely missing becoming the first nation in 60 years to win consecutive World Cups in 2022. But Olivier Giroud is 37 and Antoine Griezmann is 33, and the odds of either playing a key part in two years are slim.

Already, this generation is clearly showing signs of breaking down. While Spain has been joyful in this tournament, the French mentality has been workmanlike. Even workmanlike is too strong a word for it; France just wants to get the result and get it over with as soon as possible. That’s not a recipe for sustained success, and there’s a sense that it’s only worked this long because of the opposition France faced. Outside of the Netherlands, France’s group was not strong, and its knockout matches came against over-the-hill sides in Belgium and Portugal. Spain’s a long way from that.

Best Bets

Spain Win to Nil (+260): Spain has controlled the tempo in every match it’s played. France has had to grind things out, while Spain makes teams adjust to them. The two goals conceded by La Furia Roja came off a fluke shot from Georgia and German desperation. France doesn’t seem capable of stepping up the attack.

Under 1.5 Goals (+155): France will not attack until it absolutely has to. If it can get this thing to 0-0 and win in penalties, that’s totally fine with Les Bleus. Don’t expect much action here unless Spain forces the issue with an early marker.

Spain 1-0 (+450): One feels like enough to win this one. The Spanish have been the stronger side and the French look mentally shot. Spain should succeed here where it failed three years ago and play for the crown.