Spain vs. England Expert Pick and Prediction – July 14, 2024

SPAIN VS. ENGLAND EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 14, 2024 — Is it finally coming home, or is England set up for another heartbreak? The Three Lions got here three years ago at home, only to fall to Italy on penalties (of course on penalties) and extend their streak of futility to 55 years. England has not lifted a trophy since 1966, coming agonizingly close again and again. Over the past three major tournaments, the English have finished second, fourth and sixth, but still haven’t won anything.

Spain knows all too well what it feels like to go out on penalties. In 2021, the Spanish fell in the semifinals to Italy, losing on penalties to just miss their third European title in four tries. Spain had a brief lull where it didn’t get past the round of 16 at four tournaments in five, but the Spanish seem to have their new generation fully in place.

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And that’s why La Furia Roja have looked so dangerous throughout this tournament. The Spanish defense hasn’t been quite so strong in the knockouts, but the offense has done what’s been necessary. Spain fell behind against Georgia and France, but turned both matches around to take control in 90 minutes. Against host Germany, Spain nearly threw away a win by conceding in the 89th minute, only to score the winner in extra time.

England has also shown its mettle. The Three Lions’ tournament very nearly ended in the Round of 16 at Slovakia’s hands before Jude Bellingham rescued the match seconds before the final whistle. They beat Switzerland on penalties and pulled another rabbit out of the hat with a 90th-minute winner over the Netherlands. Do they have one more top performance left in them to finally end six decades of English misery?

Kickoff

Teams: Spain vs. England

When: Sunday, July 14 at 3 p.m. EST

Where: Olympiastadion, Berlin

TV: Fox

Spread: Spain -0.5/England +0.5

Moneyline: Spain +140/England +255/Draw +185

To Win the Title: Spain -155/England +125

Totals: Over 2.5 (+145)/Under 2.5 (-185)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 14th, 2024 

Scouting Spain 

After a quiet group stage, Dani Olmo has seized the moment in the knockout stages. He’s scored in every knockout match for Spain and now has a chance to win the Golden Boot (top scorer) if he can find another goal in the final. The RB Leipzig winger has looked right at home in Germany, where he plies his trade in the club season. He’s had the trust of Spain manager Luis de la Fuente ever since their days on the Spanish Olympic team, and he’s likely to play a role in the final.

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Spain answered some crucial questions in the semifinal win over France, especially when Lamine Yamal scored the equalizer. The biggest question facing Spain was whether or not it could handle the pressure of this kind of moment. So far, the young Spaniards are handling things beautifully.

Scouting England

While Spain plays with nothing to lose, England plays with the weight of expectations. The English know they’re lucky to be here, given how poor they’ve been for most of this tournament. They were gifted a weak group of Denmark, Slovenia and Serbia and only managed two draws and an unconvincing win over last-place Serbia. That was enough to top the group on the bracket’s weaker side, but they nearly blew that with 90 poor minutes against Slovakia before five minutes of magic.

Despite all of that, they’re still here. England is remarkably similar to the France side Spain just dismissed: a side that’s weighed down by physical and mental expectations. There’s also the notable Curse of Harry Kane: the Englishman still has never won a trophy at any level. This was supposed to be the year that came to an end at Bayern Munich, which had won 11 straight Bundesliga crowns. Instead, Bayer Leverkusen pulled an undefeated campaign and left Kane trophyless yet again. If it doesn’t happen here, it’s fair to wonder if the 30-year-old Kane will ever win a trophy.

Best Bets

Both Teams to Score (-105): Finals can either be cagey affairs or wide-open matches. This seems more likely to become the latter, given how Spain intends to play. England has shown just enough to get the job done each time, scoring in five of its six matches. Spain hadn’t given up a goal in the group stage, but it has conceded in all three knockout matches. A fourth BTTS looks like good value.

Spain and Over 2.5 Goals (+360): If England finds the net, Spain’s going to need two to avoid extra time. That looks like a good play, especially if Spain scores early and forces the English to chase.

Spain 2-1 (+700): England’s poor form just doesn’t seem to be good preparation to handle Spain. While the English were struggling to survive Slovenia, Slovakia and Switzerland, the Spanish were a step ahead of Croatia, Italy, Germany and France. Out of the top nine teams in Europe, Spain has already faced four of them and beaten them. England appears to be No. 5, as Spain becomes the first nation to win four Euro titles.