South Florida vs. San Jose State Expert Pick and Prediction – December 24, 2024

SOUTH FLORIDA VS. SAN JOSE STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 24, 2024 — Has San Jose State learned its lesson from a year ago? Last year, the Spartans made it to the Hawai’i Bowl for a homecoming for then-quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, but the rest of the team neglected to show up. San Jose State got caught napping in a 24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina, and the result was never really in doubt.

Cordeiro has been gone all year, but now San Jose State has to play without top receiver Nick Nash. Nash emerged as the top threat in the Spartan offense by a mile, catching 104 passes and 16 scores in San Jose State’s run-and-shoot offense. But he opted out for the bowl game, and considering that over 1/3 of the Spartans’ completions went to him, Ken Niumatalolo’s got to get creative with the offense for this game.

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That’s even more true given how seriously South Florida appears to be taking this bowl game. Unlike a lot of teams, the Bulls weren’t hit very hard in the transfer portal, losing only eight players. And not among those names are either of the team’s main quarterbacks, Byrum Brown and Bryce Archie. Archie took over in Week 5 after Brown got injured, but Brown might be ready to return for the bowl game.

If he is, that gives USF an extra threat on the ground from the quarterback position. There’s also the fact that the Bulls went all-out to get themselves to the islands as rested as possible. South Florida sprung for a direct flight from Tampa to Honolulu — something I can personally confirm isn’t possible for the average person, as we had to make stops in Austin and Long Beach when we went out to the islands. The Bulls showed themselves a force in the postseason last year when they routed Syracuse 41-0, and they look to repeat that in Honolulu.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Tuesday, December 24 at 8 p.m.

Where: Clarence TC Ching Complex, Honolulu

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

South Florida vs. San Jose State In-Season Trends

The number is high for a reason: because both of these teams are known for their potential to put up points. South Florida has played to the over in five of its past six games, while San Jose State is known now for the run-and-shoot. However, that’s kind of backfired on the over bettors where the Spartans are concerned. It has only gone 2-5 in San Jose State’s past seven games, and the two cashes were because the Spartan defense allowed an average of 36 points in those two games.

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Both teams are excellent at matching their spread result to their game result, having done so in their past five games each.

Weather

It’s Honolulu and a kickoff at 3 p.m. local time. It’s going to be sunny and it’s going to be in the low 80s, like it is almost every day.

The Difference-Makers

Unlike San Jose State, South Florida does have its top pass catching threat. Sean Atkins can become USF’s all-time leader in receiving yards with 74 more, and he’s averaged just under six catches per game. He’s not a big touchdown threat, but he’s a fine possession receiver.

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With Nash gone, the pass catching falls to Justin Lockhart, who was No. 2 on the list. South Florida’s defense is a lot better against the pass than the run, but the Spartans have gone to a run-and-shoot identity. It’s very difficult to change that on the fly.

The Pick

The defenses should have the edge here. South Florida would rather not give the ball to San Jose State any more than necessary and has the ability to slow the game down if it wants. With Brown back on the field, the Bulls can run the ball far more effectively than they have all year.

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South Florida has to get pressure on San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget. The Bulls’ strength on defense is their pass rush, not their secondary. If Eget gets time, he’ll pick USF apart. But with Nash not there, he’s going to need more time than the Bulls will give him.