South Dakota State vs. Oklahoma State Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE VS. OKLAHOMA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — It’s hard to beat what Oklahoma State has coming back from last season. The Cowboys return 10 starters, only having to make a replacement at tight end. Even better, Oklahoma State has the nation’s leading rusher in Ollie Gordon back in the backfield.

And yet, this matchup is trouble. Oklahoma State shouldn’t lose the game, but the fact that this could be close speaks to just how good South Dakota State has become. The Jackrabbits have won the past two FCS national championships, and they’ve gone 29-1 in their past two seasons. The one loss was to Iowa, and that by just four points. If promotion and relegation was a thing in college football, South Dakota State would be a Big Ten school by now.

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As it is, this is not likely to be your typical FBS-FCS blowout. Oklahoma State would love to put this to bed early and get ready for Arkansas, but it’s probably not going to be able to do that. This is a result the Cowboys will have to work to achieve.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at 2 p.m. EST

Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla.

TV: ESPN+

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

South Dakota State vs. Oklahoma State In-Season Trends

Fading Mike Gundy in the first week of the season is usually a good strategy. The Cowboys have opened at home four years running against a non-Power 4 foe, and they’ve covered in a grand total of none of them. In fact, none of the four were a larger margin than 14 points, despite Oklahoma State being favored by at least 20 points every time.

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In fact, it might just be a good idea to go ahead and fade Gundy against anyone from outside the Power 4. Over the past four seasons, the Cowboys have played 10 non-conference games. They’re 2-0 ATS against power conference opponents and 1-7 ATS against the Group of 5 and FCS. Only Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which is so weak that it only played 10-minute quarters in the second half on Friday against Arkansas, failed to cover the number as a lower-level opponent against Oklahoma State.

Weather

The heat wave appears to be ending, which should leave good weather for the opener. Temperatures will be 79 degrees at kickoff, with humidity not providing much of an effect.

The Difference-Makers

Alan Bowman has plenty of talent but needs to be smarter with the football. Oklahoma State was prone to head-scratchers last year because of turnovers, as Bowman threw 14 picks against 15 touchdowns. The Cowboys are not a very opportunistic defense (2023 marked the first time in six years that Oklahoma State was positive in its turnover ratio), so Bowman has to limit mistakes.

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Mark Gronowski didn’t have to come back to South Dakota State. There were multiple programs offering him seven figures in NIL money to move to the Power 4. He chose to stay in Brookings and chase a third national championship to repay his school’s loyalty. He’s a dangerous dual threat quarterback and a Walter Payton Award winner, making this offense dangerous.

The Pick

The Cowboys have the better team, but their horrible history of letting teams play with them makes them a risky bet here. So does the fact that Oklahoma State is likely far more focused on Arkansas than it is on this matchup.

South Dakota State has become the premier FCS program, and it operates on par with the big boys. The Jackrabbits are talented and very capable of a third straight national title. They can keep this closer than the spread indicates. Expect this to be similar to North Dakota State’s game with Colorado: the Jackrabbits push the Cowboys for 60 minutes before falling one score short.