South Alabama vs. Appalachian State Expert Pick and Prediction – September 19, 2024

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. APPALACHIAN STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 19, 2024 — Putting up 87 points against an overmatched Northwestern State team was one thing. But what can South Alabama do against the likes of Appalachian State?

Historically, the answer has been, “not much”. In five meetings all-time, the Mountaineers have won four of them, and the Jaguars have only scored 17 points total in the past three matchups. As App State became the premier program in the Sun Belt East, South Alabama settled in as a good but not great team in the West. The Jaguars haven’t really been good enough to think league title because they haven’t been good enough to get past Troy and Louisiana.

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Since the league went to divisions, either the Trojans or the Ragin’ Cajuns have played for the Sun Belt title every single time. And each time, the opponent has been one of two programs from the East: Appalachian State or Coastal Carolina. Part of that was because James Madison wasn’t yet eligible to win the East, but the fact remains that App State has been at or near the top of the East year after year since divisional play began.

And if South Alabama hopes to make a run at the title, it’s got to beat one of these powers at some point. However, it’s easy to see why the odds are against the Jaguars here. Beating Northwestern State by 77 points was nice, but the Jaguars are 0-2 against FBS competition. App State’s a sizable step up from what South Alabama just shellacked.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, September 19 at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, N.C.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 19th, 2024.

South Alabama vs. Appalachian State In-Season Trends

When you load your schedule with an FCS team and a team from the ACC, it’s going to be tough to cover in either situation. App State failed to cover both times, beating East Tennessee State by only 28 points and failing to be competitive with an angry Clemson squad that believed itself better than what it showed against Georgia.

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South Alabama has managed to be favored in every game it’s played this year prior to this one. That didn’t help against FBS opponents, as its defensive issues really came to a head. The Jaguars can certainly score, but the defense has allowed 79 points in two games against FBS opponents. When the offense hits a bump, the defense isn’t good enough to bail it out.

Weather

This could be a wet evening, which would be rough on both teams. Temperatures won’t be an issue, sitting around 75 degrees, but showers in the forecast could make it difficult for teams to throw the ball.

The Difference-Makers

So far, Gio Lopez hasn’t made any mistakes with the football. He actually spread the ball around a lot more frequently against Northwestern State than against Ohio or North Texas, where he seemed locked in on Jamaal Pritchett. Pritchett caught a combined 18 passes for 265 yards in the two games against FBS opponents, scoring two touchdowns. If you can bet a prop, Pritchett has a touchdown in every game he’s played in 2024.

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Kaedin Robinson isn’t going to be kept out of the end zone for much longer. He’s averaging 13 yards per catch and caught seven passes for 129 yards last week. If South Alabama doesn’t pay close attention to him, he’s going to burn them and might do it repeatedly.

The Pick

What this game boils down to is the fact that the Jaguars just aren’t very good on defense. South Alabama can score like nobody’s business, but the Jaguars don’t do a good job stopping people and don’t really have a Plan B if the offense does get stuck in the mud.

The total is probably too high to touch, as it’s unclear how well App State will handle South Alabama’s attack. But the line makes a lot of sense with the Mountaineers. They’ve been the more consistent team, they’re at home and they’re more talented overall. They should be the choice.