SMU vs. Nevada Expert Pick and Prediction – August 24, 2024

SMU VS. NEVADA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 24, 2024 — This Week Zero matchup features two teams heading in very different directions. On one hand, you’ve got the newest member of the Power 4 conferences. SMU bought its way into the ACC, but the Mustangs would deserve to be at this level on their own merits. They’ve built a solid team that won 11 games last season and probably should have been in the New Year’s Six bowls.

On the other side, there’s Nevada, which might be the worst team in the Mountain West. How bad were the Wolf Pack last season? Prior to his team’s trip to Reno, Hawai’i coach Timmy Chang was 0-10 all-time on the mainland. Nevada couldn’t even stay within 10 points of the Rainbow Warriors, losing by 13 on their way to a 2-10 finish.

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And it looks like things aren’t getting any better anytime soon. Jeff Choate takes over after directing Texas’ successful defense, but he doesn’t have anywhere near the same kind of talent he had in Austin.  The defense has a ton of holes and it’s facing a squad that can move the ball like nobody’s business. Unless there’s a major regression on the defensive side of the ball for SMU, it’s hard to see Nevada sticking around.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 24 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev.

TV: CBS Sports

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 23rd, 2024.

SMU vs. Nevada In-Season Trends

For the most part, Nevada games tended to be fairly high scoring on at least one side of the football. The Wolf Pack only had four games out of 12 where they allowed fewer than 28 points, and one of those included a 6-0 win over San Diego State. During the non-conference slate, Nevada didn’t allow fewer than 31 points to anyone.

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SMU could usually be counted on for points, at least when it won the game. The Mustangs had three defeats last season, and all three saw them fail to break 20 points. In their 11 wins, they didn’t score fewer than 30 points outside of the American championship game against Toledo.

Weather

This is going to feel like fall weather. Temperatures are going to hit around 59 degrees at kickoff, with winds blowing at about nine miles per hour. There’s a chance of rain, about 40%, but it shouldn’t have a huge impact.

The Difference-Makers

Preston Stone could make a huge difference at quarterback. Stone offers a true dual threat at the position, and SMU’s offense wasn’t quite the same when it had to play without him. The Mustangs had to turn to backup Kevin Jennings when Stone went down, and while a good passer, Jennings just doesn’t provide the running dimension that Stone does.

Nevada does have its quarterback returning in Brendon Lewis, and Lewis likely benefits from a coaching change. Last year, Nevada never really got comfortable with a quarterback, resulting in Lewis constantly looking over his shoulder for a move. This year, he should be the main signal caller.

The Pick

SMU earned its spot in the ACC on the field, and it’s still a team that has blasted opponent after opponent on the Group of 5 level. The Mustangs might not quite live up to the hype of competing for the ACC title this year, but they don’t have to do that. As long as they can put up their usual strong showing on offense, they’ll have too much for Nevada.

I don’t really believe in the SMU defense, so I think the over is the best move. If Nevada contributes anything, SMU’s offense should do the rest.