SMU vs. Louisville Expert Pick and Prediction – October 5, 2024

SMU VS. LOUISVILLE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 5, 2024 — Is anything going to stop the SMU march to the ACC title game? If it’s not Louisville, the answer might be a hard no. SMU’s schedule was always thought to be a difficult start to ACC life before giving the Mustangs a glide path to Charlotte if they could survive it. With Florida State proving a pushover, SMU now faces the very real possibility of being favored in every game it plays the rest of the year after this one.

That said, Louisville is no pushover. The Cardinals nearly took down Notre Dame in South Bend, and they’re ranked 22nd nationally for a reason. Other than that loss to the Irish, Louisville easily beat Georgia Tech and was barely scratched in its other two non-conference games.

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There’s another factor at play here: does SMU genuinely believe it’s ready for this level? The Mustangs had no problems with Florida State, but that was at home in front of a crowd that had waited 30 years for Power 4 football. Now they’re on the road against a fired-up home team that believes it can win the ACC.

On top of that, Louisville has no margin for error. If the Mustangs slip here, they might still slide into the conference title game at 7-1. Louisville still has to play Miami at home as well as go to Clemson. The Mustangs could use a win; the Cardinals simply have to have one.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, October 5 at Noon EST

Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 1st, 2024.

SMU vs. Louisville In-Season Trends

Beating Louisville in Louisville has been a tough ask. The Cardinals have gone 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS over the past two-plus seasons in what used to be Cardinal Stadium, losing only to Florida State and Kentucky. Even those were near wins, as the Cardinals fell by four to the Seminoles (getting 3.5) and seven to the Wildcats. 

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SMU hasn’t played in the ACC long enough for any kinds of trends to have taken shape. The Mustangs haven’t been great as an away dog, though; they’re just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games when catching points. Nor did they look very good in their one road game this year; they only just survived Nevada.

Weather

It’s going to feel more like Texas than Kentucky as October football arrives. Temperatures will sit at 84 degrees at kickoff, without any rain and little wind as a factor.

The Difference-Makers

Having a back like Brashard Smith makes things much easier on the offense. It’s probably not a coincidence that SMU’s offense took off after the switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback, but Smith’s running has also been a large part of that equation. Since Jennings took over for Preston Stone, Smith has had two 100-yard games, and he’s topped seven yards per carry in that stretch.

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Tyler Shough’s biggest strength in the backfield is that he doesn’t make mistakes. In four games, Shough has thrown for 11 touchdowns against just one interception. The Mustangs’ opportunistic defense has already forced 14 turnovers this season, and they picked off DJ Uiagalelei for a touchdown last week. Shough must deny the Mustangs short fields.

The Pick

Louisville is likely to take better care of the football than Florida State did, but can the Cardinals actually slow down the SMU ground game? When Jennings and Smith get going, it is very hard to stop the Mustangs. Smith’s also seen Louisville before, having gotten two carries last year while playing for Miami. He went for 34 yards on those touches, so Louisville’s already shown reason to hesitate.

This feels like last score wins. In a game like that, I want the points.