Sixers vs. Celtics Game 7 Preview and Picks

SIXERS VS. CELTICS GAME 7 PREVIEW AND PICKS – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. But before we get into today’s featured game, I would like to take a moment to wish all the moms out there – especially mine – a Happy Mother’s Day. 

Today’s matchup is a winner-take-all Game 7 between the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers and the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics. Here is a breakdown of which team has the edge going into the series finale and why.

Click here to read more NBA coverage. 

The Odds

Tipoff 

When: Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 3:30 PM EST

Where: TD Garden, Boston MA

TV: ABC

Public Money: 73%, Sixers

Public Bets: 76%, Sixers

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings as of May 14, 2023

How We Got Here

The two teams split the first four games in the series, but not in the fashion you may think. Both ball clubs earned a victory on the other’s home floor.

That topsy-turvy trend continued over the next two contests as well. The Sixers won Game 5 in Boston by a 115-103 margin. And although they had a chance to close out the series in front of their home fans, they failed to capitalize on the opportunity, as the Celtics emerged victorious with a 95-86 win in Game 6. 

Not only did the road team win for the fourth time in this series, but the Celtics also won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing his first 10 shot attempts and scoring just three points through the first three quarters. Thanks to his 16 points in the final frame, the Celtics forced a Game 7 back in their building. 

This is what teams play for in the regular season. To have the deciding game of a playoff series on their home floor.  But neither venue has served the home team well through the first six games, and it will be interesting to see if the road team can prevail for the fifth time. 

Here are my betting picks for Game 7, including my confidence meter for each pick on a scale between one and five stars. 

Over/Under

The O/ for this game opened at 205 points. That line has moved to 200.5 points, with the over attracting 63 percent of the cash and 83 percent of the tickets. 

The projected points total has gone over in each of Philly’s last four games following an against-the-spread loss. And the OVER is 7-3 for the Sixers in the last 10 instances in which they are playing on two days of rest. Game 6 between these teams was on Thursday night. 

The OVER is 5-0 for Boston in its last five games following an ATS win and a straight-up win.

The OVER boasts a 7-1 record in the Celtics’ last eight Sunday games, and an 8-2 mark in the team’s last 10 games overall. 

The OVER has hit for Boston five times in the last seven instances in which its opponent has a winning road record. The Sixers finished the regular season with a 25-16 road record. 

Lastly, the 200.5 projected total for Game 7 has been exceeded five times through the first six games, and I expect that trend to continue. 

Prediction: Over 200.5 total points ★★★★

The Spread

The Sixers opened as a consensus seven-point favorite. The line has moved to (-6.5)

Philly is 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven road games overall. And the team has an identical record 5-1-1 record ATS against teams with a winning home record. The Celtics were 32-9 at home during the regular season. 

The Sixers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games that were played on a Sunday and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Meanwhile, Boston has a 10-3 record ATS in its last 13 games against teams with an overall winning record. The Sixers were 54-28 during the regular season.

The Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. This includes a 9-4 record ATS in their last 13 home games. 

Boston holds an 8-3 record ATS spread in the last 11 meetings between the two teams. Furthermore, the Celtics are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games against teams that had a winning percentage of .600 or better. Philadelphia’s winning percentage was .659 during the regular season. 

Since the average margin of victory in their three wins is 18.3 points, I am going to go with the home team to win and cover the spread. 

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-6.5) ★★★

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in Game 7 is Joel Embiid. He has -105 odds of scoring over 30.5 points per contest and -125 odds of scoring less than 30.5 points. 

Embiid has played suited up against the Celtics 14 times in the postseason. During that stretch, he is averaging 26.5 points and 11.8 rebounds 

While his postseason average against the Celtics is four points less than the projected points total in this game, there is some good news.

In five of the games Embiid has played in this series, he has scored 30 or more points in three of those five games. And if Philly has any hope of advancing to its first conference finals since 2001, the team will need a virtuoso performance from the league’s MVP. 

Prediction: Joel Embiid Over 30.5 points ★★★

Read more playoff coverage here!