SEC Championship Preview
A Rematch
The Dawgs defense led the charge into Austin to upset the Texas Longhorns in October in a game that featured 7 turnovers between both teams. This time, the teams meet in Atlanta for the SEC crown. Read more SEC championship preview.
They had opposite paths to get to this moment, with Texas having the easiest schedule in the SEC and UGA going through the toughest. Both quarterbacks have had up-and-down seasons. Both offenses have underwhelmed at times.
The one constant between these two teams is Texas’ defense, which showed up in Austin and controlled the Dawgs, as they have against every opponent so far this year. The UGA defense has, at times, looked to be one of the best in the nation. Other times, they look hapless, undisciplined and unmotivated.
It’s the same, but different this time
What has changed with these teams? Well, in many ways not a whole lot. Texas is still a team that runs the ball and uses the screen game as an extension of the run. They set up play action passing deep down the field with crossers and deep overs to hit explosive plays. Tight end Gunner Helm, receivers Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden, and running backs Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue lead the offense as playmakers.
Helm is a beast. Bond wasn’t healthy the first time these teams faced off but still managed to score a touchdown. His deep threat ability is a game-changer. Wisner has come along more and more as the season has gone on to be a threat in the running game. Texas likes to run outside zone and their offensive line does a great job executing it. There is some question on the health of LT Kelvin Banks, who picked up an injury last week. Steve Sarkisian has said he’s practicing this week, but he’s listed as questionable in the injury report.
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UGA
The Dawgs come into this game incredibly banged up. Last game, RB Trevor Etienne was the offense. While I think he’ll suit up, I think he’ll have very limited playing time in the game. Instead, freshman star Nate Frazier is going to have to carry the load and Rodrick Robinson will help out a bit. Robinson played his first game of the year last week. Frazier shows great potential but also puts the ball at risk the way he carries it. Texas forces a lot of turnovers, and if it’s not Beck throwing picks, then Frazier fumbling is the next most likely option.
The UGA offensive line is banged up. After the Tech game, Smart noted that UGA’s LT, LG, C and RT were all banged up. However, the line has stabilized since LT Monroe Freeling came in for the injured Earnest Greene.
Unfortunately for Greene, I’m not sure he’ll get that job back. Fortunately for the Dawgs, the O line has been much better at pass blocking, and we’ve seen Carson Beck take his game up to the next level in response. He’s thrown over 10 touchdowns and 0 INTs over the last 3 games. If receivers like Arian Smith would just cut the drops out, Beck would be lighting up opposing defenses.
Speaking of Smith, he has to have a big game for the Dawgs. He’s their biggest threat at WR, but also can’t catch a cold. He had the clutch 3rd and 10 catch deep in their own territory in the last game that sparked the drive that sealed the win for the Dawgs. Smith needs to cut the mistakes, and the last game against Tech was probably the worst of his career. Put that behind you and go make some plays downfield so Frazier and company can run the ball.
The Defense
Defensively, LB Jalon Walker and DL Mykel WIlliams feasted in the first matchup. I don’t think they’ll be quite as dominant in this one, in part because that performance would be nearly impossible to replicate.
Last time, UGA often brought 5 men in a pressure and it frequently kept Quinn Ewers on his back. While the general idea should still hold for the UGA defense, I doubt they’ll be as successful this time. They threw brand new pressure packages last time, now Texas will be ready.
Prediction
With as unpredictable as UGA has been this year, I have a low level of confidence on how this game is going to turn out. My gut told me in the first game that Texas would win because they were more complete, but their lack of competition doomed them. This time Texas won’t be caught off guard.
I also don’t think you’ll see Carson Beck perform as badly as last game, although I do think one turnover is a fair expectation from him in this one. I really could see it going either way and I think both teams are capable of blowing the other team out if they come out on fire and the other struggles out of the gate. Who has struggled out the gate this season? Georgia. They scored 3, 3, 7, 6, 7, and 0 in various first half games this year. I think they start slow yet again, but find a way to claw back in this game and pull it out.
