Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Expert Pick – September 2, 2023

SEATTLE STORM  VS. LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 2, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. The lone game on today’s schedule features the Seattle Storm (11-25) – the not-so-proud owners of the second-worst record in the league — taking on the Las Vegas Aces (31-6).

For several reasons, this game is a mismatch on paper. Then again, the occasional upset does take place every so often. With that in mind, let’s look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET

Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV

TV: NBA TV, FOX13+, Prime Video, and Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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SEATTLE STORM VS LAS VEGAS ACES — SEASON TRENDS

Despite Abysmal Record, Storm Are Playing Decent As Of Late

Let’s be honest, Seattle’s 2023 season has been atrocious, and that’s putting it mildly. They began the season with four straight losses. This squad also endured a 10-game losing streak that spanned from late June to the end of July. But over their last 10 games, the Storm are 5-5, including a 72-61 win over the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday.

Jewell Loyd paced Seattle with 25 points to go along with seven boards. She is the third player to reach 800 points this season. The other players are A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart. Both players are the front-runners to win the league MVP. That said, Loyd is in good company.

For a team that has just 11 wins, I am sure that no one is surprised that Seattle has a difficult time generating offense. The team is ranked 10^th and 12, respectively, in scoring and efficiency. Seattle is also the worst shooting team in the association at 40.8 percent. What may come as a surprise is that the Storm are ranked sixth in points allowed (83.3 PPG) and seventh in defensive rating (104.5 points per 100 possessions). The Storm will need a superb effort at that end of the floor to keep this game remotely competitive.

Las Vegas Aces Hoping To Gain Momentum Heading Into The Postseason

Make no mistake, the Aces ARE the best team in the WNBA. However, they have looked somewhat ordinary as they suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this season against the Washington Mystics on Aug. 26 and the New York Liberty two days later.

Las Vegas got back into the win column with an 84-75 win over the Mystics on Thursday. Wilson led the way with 26 points and 11 rebounds. She has posted three double-doubles over her last four outings.

The Aces have the top offense in the league, averaging 92.2 points per contest. They are also ranked 3^rd in points allowed (80.4 PPG) and they boast the league’s top defense, allowing 99.3 points per 100 possessions. Yep, I think we are getting a good feel as to which team will come out on top in this matchup.

The Picks

The Spread

The Aces opened as a 16.5-point favorite. Normally, I would say this feels like a trap. But in looking back at the three games between these teams – all won by Las Vegas – the large spread seems warranted. Las Vegas’ average margin of victory was 29.3 points per game.

Here are a few other trends that suggest why picking the Aces to cover may not be a bad choice.

• Las Vegas is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games at home.
• The Aces are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Seattle.
• Las Vegas is 4-2 ATS in its last six matchups against Seattle at home.

Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 169.5 points. Here is a look at why the under could be the wise choice.

• In those three matchups that we mentioned earlier, the 169-point threshold was reached just once.
• The UNDER has a 6-1 record in Seattle’s last seven games following an ATS win.
• In the Storm’s last seven games against Western Conference teams, the UNDER is 5-2.
• The UNDER is 5-2 for Las Vegas in its last seven games playing on one day of rest.
• In Las Vegas’ last five home games, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0.
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five encounters between these teams in Las Vegas.

Prediction: Under 169.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is none other than Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 22.5 points.

Wilson is averaging a career-high 22.1 points per contest this season, which is just a shade under the projected scoring total for this contest. The caveat here is this game will not be competitive enough for Wilson to have to play a significant number of minutes.

In the two blowout wins over the Storm, she averaged 13.5 points and 12.5 rebounds. The last matchup between these two teams was a bit closer (79-63). And in that contest, Wilson finished with 23 points and 15 rebounds.

Prediction: A’ja Wilson Under 22.5 points