Seattle Kraken vs. Dallas Stars Expert Pick – May 4, 2023

SEATTLE KRAKEN VS. DALLAS STARS EXPERT PICK – MAY 4, 2023 – The NHL lucked into this bit of familiarity between the Kraken and the Stars. Thanks to a quirk of scheduling, these two didn’t face each other at all until mid-March, and then they met three times in 10 days down the stretch. After Game 1, four of the Kraken’s past 25 games have been played against Dallas, even after a seven-game series with Colorado.

Because of that, there aren’t a lot of surprises to be found in this matchup. These teams have shown that they’re pretty evenly matched, as Game 1 marked the third time in 2023 that the teams have gone to overtime.

All of them have seen plenty of goals, and if Game 1 was any indication, there’s not going to be much the goaltenders can do about it. Seattle took the first game by a 5-4 count, but the defenses allowed 79 shots at the net over the course of 72 minutes of action. 

All nine goals came in five-on-five situations, which doesn’t say much for the blueliners but does suggest how this series might go. Seattle mashed Dallas in Game 1, landing 47 hits to the Stars’ 19, but only took two penalties.

The Stars didn’t really stand up to the Kraken very well in the opener outside of Joe Pavelski, which cannot repeat if Dallas is going to stay in this series.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Thursday, May 4th at 9:30 p.m. EDT

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas

Public Bets: 57% on Dallas

Public Money: 54% on Dallas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 3rd, 2023

Seattle vs. Dallas In-Season Trends

The way things are going, Seattle might want to petition the NHL to move all of its games to the road for the rest of the season. The Kraken have ruled the road in this postseason, winning four of five away from home and losing by just a single goal in the one exception.

Going back to the regular season, they’ve gone 13-3-1 away from home since Feb. 28, including two victories at the American Airlines Center.

Whether the goals hold up is a different question. Seattle played a defensive series against Colorado, with six out of seven games going UNDER. That’s why the total is as low as it is; the books are expecting both goaltenders to bounce back in this game.

But both teams have gotten a fair amount of scoring chances against each other this season, as none of the four meetings have seen less than seven goals scored. With Dallas likely to try to pick up the hitting after getting shoved around in Game 2, there will likely be more power plays for both sides and more open ice to make a play.

Players to Watch

Dallas got past Minnesota for one large reason: Roope Hintz played outstanding on special teams. The center scored 12 points in six games against the Wild, and eight of them came either on the power play or shorthanded. Against Seattle, the Stars only got two power plays all night, so there wasn’t exactly room for Hintz to do much of anything in the opener. If the Stars aren’t getting the man advantage, Hintz becomes far less effective.

If you were only looking at the stat sheet, you didn’t notice Brandon Tanev’s contributions. But he’s one of the biggest reasons that Dallas didn’t score on the power play in Game 1, as he was out there for more than half of the Stars’ power play ice time and ranked second on the Kraken in hits with six.

Tanev isn’t a scorer, but the Kraken trust him to handle the Dallas power play, which ranks only behind Edmonton among the eight teams still alive. If the whistles start coming in Game 2, Tanev becomes far more important to Seattle’s cause.

The Pick

With the OVER this low, it’s something to ride until these teams give us a reason not to ride it. What we know about these teams is that the Kraken hit hard and these teams both get a lot of pucks to the net.

Eventually, that’s going to lead to power plays, especially if Dallas keeps dominating the faceoff circle. The Stars won 58% of the draws in Game 1, and they’re likely anxious to fix what went wrong in the opener.

I can see Dallas evening the series, but Seattle’s played so well on the road that I’d rather hedge my bets and back the Kraken on the puckline. Seattle’s covered the line in 15 of its past 17 away from home, so I’m taking the free goal tonight in a matchup that could produce yet another overtime.

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