Season Ending Premier League Parlay – May 19, 2024

SEASON ENDING PREMIER LEAGUE PARLAY – MAY 19, 2024 – The Premier League plays its final day one day after the Bundesliga, so we’ve got two windows to try to hit a huge parlay. Even though Saturday is the normal day for soccer, the final day in England is traditionally on Sunday because there’s a rule that says no matches can be televised anywhere in England at 3 p.m. local time on Saturdays (to encourage fans to go support their local team). To get around that rule with 10 matches played simultaneously, the EPL moves the last day to Sunday.

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This Sunday, before you settle in to watch your PGA championship bets on the final day, we’ve got a Premier League title to decide. Manchester City control their own fate, needing a win to secure the crown. Should the Citizens slip, the door opens for Arsenal. At the bottom of the table, Sheffield United and Burnley’s relegations are confirmed, while Luton Town would need Nottingham Forest to massively screw up to avoid dropping to the Championship.

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There are also still European spots to be decided. Some teams have far more at stake than others, and that’s been taken into account here. Here are my 10 plays for Matchday 38 in England.

Arsenal vs. Everton

This is one of the two matches that will decide the title. Arsenal shouldn’t have much of an issue here. Everton has secured safety and has nothing to play for, and the Gunners have been dynamite at the Emirates. Of the past four visitors to the Emirates, three of them left without a goal. For the year, Arsenal are 14-2-2 at its home ground.

Conversely, Everton have been hopeless away from home in 2024. The Toffees picked up five wins away from Goodison Park this year, but all of them came in 2023. Since the calendar flipped, Everton have played eight matches away from home and won a grand total of none of them. The Toffees have gone 0-6-4 in their past 10 road matches, and they haven’t scored more than once in any of them.

There’s a chance you lose this to an Everton goal, but not much of one. Arsenal has much more on the line. Take Arsenal to win to nil (-135).

Manchester City vs. West Ham United

Eight straight wins have City on the cusp of a fourth straight title, unheard of in the Premier League. The Sky Blues have simply pulverized one opponent after another since a scoreless draw with Arsenal at the Etihad on March 31. That’s the last time the Sky Blues didn’t win in Premier League competition, an eight-game win streak that’s part of a 34-match unbeaten streak.

Only a win will do the job for City, as a draw would see Arsenal claim the crown with a victory. West Ham isn’t likely to be the Gunners’ saviors. City have won nine in a row over the Hammers at the Etihad, and they’re not likely to throw the title away now. History says it might be lower-scoring, as eight of the past nine have seen under 3.5 goals.

But West Ham’s defense has really struggled lately. I don’t want to get overly aggressive here, not with eight matches to go. Play City -1.5 (-330) and go conservative here.

Liverpool vs. Wolverhampton

Wolves have mentally been on the beach since the international break in March. Wolverhampton has taken just five points in its past nine matches and has seen European competition slide well out of reach. With nothing to play for, Wolves have barely bothered, winning just once in nine matches.

Liverpool has nothing to play for in the standings, but plenty in terms of sentimental reasons. This is Jurgen Klopp’s final game at Liverpool, and the Reds want to make this a celebration. Since Wolves returned to the Premier League, Liverpool have outscored them 12-1 in five matches at Anfield. This is the time to expect goals from Liverpool. Back Liverpool TTO 2.5 (-205).

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa

Absolutely nobody wants to play Crystal Palace right now. The Eagles seem to badly want a top-half finish, and they enter this match unbeaten in six and winners in five of those matches. With a win, Palace will finish on 49 points and can secure 10th place.

Aston Villa shouldn’t provide much resistance, if any. The Lions already did their job in drawing Liverpool and watching Manchester City finish off Tottenham. They’ve secured Champions League soccer at Villa Park next season by locking in fourth place. They’re not going to be worried at all about this match, and that makes them easy pickings for Palace. Don’t overthink this one; take Crystal Palace to win (-115).

Sheffield United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

For Tottenham, this should not be hard. Sheffield United’s defense has mostly resembled a rusted-out chain link fence. The Blades have given up 101 goals, the most ever allowed in the Premier League. To put that in perspective, the previous record was Swindon Town’s 100 in 1994, and the Robins played 42 games that season. Sheffield broke the record in 37 games, showing just how woeful it’s been on defense.

All Spurs have to do to qualify to the Europa League is get a draw. This also should not be hard, given that Sheffield has one win in its past 21 matches and has lost six in a row. Five of those six defeats came by at least two goals, so you’ve got a pretty good idea where this is going. Take Tottenham -1.5 (-125).

Chelsea vs. Bournemouth

If Tottenham does manage to botch things at Sheffield, Chelsea would be the beneficiary. The Blues need a point to secure European competition, and they’ll then need Manchester City to win the FA Cup final over Manchester United to land in the second-tier Europa League over the third-tier Conference League.

Bournemouth shouldn’t be a problem. The Cherries have just one road win in their past four, and Chelsea has made life miserable for its opponents at Stamford Bridge. The past three visitors have lost by a combined 13-0, and Chelsea have won five of six at its home ground. This is a risk, but the odds are too great to ignore. Back Chelsea to win to nil at +230.

Brentford vs. Newcastle

This is probably the hardest match to pick out of any of them. Newcastle needs this to give itself a chance at European competition next season, but Brentford have been remarkably difficult to beat at home since February. The Bees have avoided defeat in five straight matches at the Community Stadium, claiming four draws and a win over Sheffield.

But…Brentford also was playing with desperation. The Bees had a real shot to be relegated if they didn’t pull something together, which they’ve done over the past few weeks. Now the danger is passed and Brentford doesn’t have anything to play for. Even worse, Newcastle has been Brentford’s nightmare opponent. In league play, the teams have met seven times all-time and Newcastle is 6-0-1. That’s enough to tell me the Magpies are the choice; back Newcastle to win (+125).

Brighton vs. Manchester United

Speaking of nightmare opponents, Brighton have just tortured Manchester United as of late. The Seagulls have beaten the Red Devils four in a row and haven’t lost at home to them since 2020. Brighton have won just once in four at the AMEX, but a look at their schedule reveals how difficult the slate has been. The Seagulls have had to face Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Chelsea in that stretch, four of the six best Premier League sides.

Manchester United comes in winless in its past five trips away from Old Trafford. United’s hopes are pinned on beating City at Wembley for the FA Cup Final; qualifying for the Europa Conference League isn’t a big deal to them. With the Red Devils struggling badly on the road, now’s absolutely the time to add to their misery. Take Brighton to win (+115).

Luton Town vs. Fulham

Luton have fought bravely against relegation in its first-ever season in the Premier League. It just wasn’t enough, unless the Hatters can somehow overcome a 12-goal deficit to Nottingham Forest. There’s probably enough here to get a result, especially against a Fulham side with nothing to play for.

Fulham have been much weaker away from Craven Cottage than at home, and the Cottagers have just one win in eight matches. Playing a BTTS makes sense here, but Fulham’s been shut out in two straight matches. Instead, take Luton Town double chance (-155). 

Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest

Technically, Forest could still go down if they lose a 12-goal edge on Luton. Realistically, that’s not likely to happen, so Forest can likely relax and play freely. Burnley is doomed no matter the result and will also play freely.

Forest has seen both teams find the net in seven of nine matches, and Burnley’s seen that happen in nine out of 10 matches. Expect that to happen again and take both teams to score (-225).