Season Ending Bundesliga Parlay – May 18, 2024

SEASON ENDING BUNDESLIGA PARLAY – MAY 18, 2024 – For the first time in over a decade, there’s a new champion in the Bundesliga.

Bayer Leverkusen’s title has been confirmed for weeks, as it still has not lost a match in 2023-24. Only four teams have ever gone through one of Europe’s top leagues without a loss, and never in Germany. And on Saturday, there will be eight other matches simultaneously kicking off to end the 2023-24 Bundesliga campaign.

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If you remember, I tried to do this last season and had a devil of a time doing it. Three of the nine went my way, but I certainly didn’t have Borussia Dortmund throwing away the title at home to Mainz or Leverkusen not showing up at all. As for Hertha Berlin upsetting Wolfsburg with nothing to play for, only my wife picked that one (at +700, no less.) Given that she also called Connecticut winning the NCAA tournament, there’s an argument that she should be writing this piece instead of me.

But no, I’m back to try it again. All nine matches, two hours, one ticket. If you want to try correct scores, hey, you pick six of them and you turn $1 into a quarter-million. That’s much better odds than Powerball. I won’t get that insane, but I will take some risks. Here we go.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Augsburg

Leverkusen heads into the final day with a chance for immortality. Nobody has ever completed a season in Germany’s top flight without a loss, and Leverkusen have a chance to finish the job at home. Even better, the Black and Reds face an Augsburg side with absolutely nothing to play for.

Augsburg was a thorn in Leverkusen’s side last year, sweeping both matches. This year, the Bavarian side pushed Leverkusen to a scoreless draw for 90 minutes before the visitors found the winner into stoppage time. Augsburg sits a comfortable 10th and can’t qualify for European competition, making this match superfluous unless they want to ruin Leverkusen’s night.

Don’t get greedy here. There will be other chances to get aggressive. For this match, just take Leverkusen to make history at -380.

Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich already considers second place to be a disaster. So it wouldn’t make much of a difference for the Bavarians to hold onto it compared to third. They’re still in the Champions League either way, and they’re still nowhere close to Leverkusen.

Hoffenheim, however, has motivation. A win means they secure no lower than seventh and secure European competition next year. Most likely, that will mean the Europa League. There is a chance Hoffenheim could fall to the Conference League, but that would require Leverkusen to lose its 50-match unbeaten streak in the German Cup final to second-division Kaiserslautern.

The bad news is that to secure seventh for certain, Hoffenheim has to win. If it draws, then it has to depend on Union Berlin getting at least a point against Freiburg. As an Union fan, I can say definitively that you don’t want to depend on Union Berlin for anything this season. Still, Hoffenheim shared the points with Bayern last time here, and it historically plays the bigger side tough at its ground. Taking Hoffenheim double chance (-110) makes sense here.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Darmstadt

Dortmund couldn’t care less about this match, but Darmstadt’s about as threatening as a dandelion. The Lilies have failed to score in seven of their past 10 matches and already know this is their farewell to top-flight soccer. With 82 goals conceded, Darmstadt isn’t stopping Dortmund.

The question is whether Dortmund will stop Darmstadt. The Black and Yellow haven’t kept a clean sheet since March 2 against Union Berlin and haven’t done it at home since February 9 against Freiburg. Backing a win to nil makes sense on the surface because it’s Darmstadt, but the defense is a real liability.

If you want to leave this out of your play entirely, I wouldn’t blame you. Dortmund put out a reserve side against Mainz and lost 3-0, but they also did that to get their top players some rest after a grueling Champions League semifinal. To me, the best play seems to be to back Dortmund -1.5 at -255.

Stuttgart vs. Monchengladbach

This is a year to forget for Monchengladbach. The Foals have failed to win in 12 of their past 13 road matches, and they have nothing to play for here. Stuttgart can get second with a win and a Bayern defeat (they can’t do it with a Bayern draw unless they can beat Gladbach by 16), which would be huge for a club of its stature.

These teams tend to play high-scoring affairs. Nine straight meetings between the Reds and the Foals have seen both teams find the mesh, and Stuttgart has conceded in three of its past four matches overall. Backing both teams to score (-200) is the play here.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig

And here’s where fortune might favor the bold. RB Leipzig has nothing to play for, as it’s locked into fourth place and a Champions League spot. Eintracht Frankfurt just has to get a point to secure a spot in the Europa League next season by finishing sixth.

There’s no incentive for either team to push hard, and Eintracht Frankfurt have been the masters of the draw all year. The Eagles have actually drawn more than they’ve won (13 ties, 11 wins), and the first meeting with RB Leipzig was a narrow 1-0 victory. With a draw good enough to satisfy both teams, don’t expect a wide-open match.

If I were playing a correct score, I’d pick this match to finish 0-0. As it is, this is where you get aggressive and bet the draw (+270). 

Union Berlin vs. Freiburg

I’ve given up trying to figure out Union Berlin. This season was supposed to be a celebration, and it’s turned into a nightmare. Last year, Union entered this match trying to secure fourth place and the Champions League. Now it’s trying to avoid relegation in an embarrassing scrap. The Iron Ones nearly had the job done last week, but then relegation rival Koln flipped the match on its head and emerged with a 3-2 win from 2-0 down.

Freiburg have never won at the An der Alten Forsterei. At the same time, Union Berlin haven’t won a match since March 16. Freiburg enters with no wins in its past four matches, and it might not even need a win here to play in Europe next year. If Leverkusen win the German Cup — again, a very good bet — Freiburg just need a draw to secure the Conference League spot in eighth.

I don’t trust Union Berlin this season at all. But considering they’re at home and they only need a point to give themselves no worse than a chance to avoid relegation, this should be beyond their ability to screw up. Take Union Berlin draw no bet (-175).

Werder Bremen vs. VfL Bochum

From Werder Bremen’s perspective, the River Islanders might as well go all out and hope a couple results fall their way. Werder Bremen needs a lot of help to steal the Conference League berth, but there are worse teams to depend on than Bayer Leverkusen.

The River Islanders also have to count on Union Berlin, so this is far from a guarantee. But all they have to do is better Heidenheim’s result by a goal, have Freiburg lose at Union and have Augsburg fail to beat Leverkusen. Then, they’d need Leverkusen to win the German Cup next week. All of those are likely outcomes except for Union, and even that has about a 35% chance to happen.

Bochum has mostly looked done since February. They did enough to likely secure safety by winning two of their past three, but they were helpless against Leverkusen last time out. They’ve won just twice on the road all year and have a goal differential of -26 away from home. Take Werder Bremen to win (+135).

Heidenheim vs. Koln

Koln is desperate in a big way. Only a win will give the Billy Goats hope of saving their season, and even then, it doesn’t look good. To avoid relegation, Koln must make up a three-goal deficit to Union Berlin. That means that unless Union massively screw up and lose by three or more at home, Koln has to win by multiple goals to have a chance.

And that’s not likely. For starters, Koln has one away win all year, and it was 1-0 over last-place Darmstadt. Second, Heidenheim has gradually figured out how to play in the Bundesliga. Since Halloween, only Leverkusen, Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig, all of whom are ranked sixth or better, have taken a win off the first-year Bundesliga side.

That’s not to say Heidenheim have been great. Ten of their 17 matches in 2024 have finished all square, including the first meeting with Koln. With both sides having something to play for, this appears to be the quintessential draw that helps nobody. Back the draw (+275).

Wolfsburg vs. Mainz

Thanks to Dortmund’s Champions League run, Mainz has a great shot to survive the season. It holds a 12-goal edge on Union Berlin, so all it needs is a point against Wolfsburg to guarantee survival.

That should be doable, and will likely be done with defense. Since an 8-1 thrashing at the hands of Bayern on March 9 — which doubles as Mainz’s most recent defeat — the 05ers haven’t given up more than one goal in a match. Five of their past eight matches have played out under 2.5 goals, and eight of their past 11 away matches have seen two goals or less on the scoresheet.

Wolfsburg has also seen defense dominate as of late. Six of their past eight matches have seen three goals or less hit the mesh, and the Wolves have scored one goal or less three times in five matches.

With Wolfsburg safely in the clubhouse and Mainz needing just a point, there is no reason to expect goals here. Play under 2.5 goals (+110).