San Francisco vs. Saint Mary’s Expert Pick and Prediction – January 23, 2025

SAN FRANCISCO VS. SAINT MARY’S EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 23, 2025 — If you’re not a fan of high-powered offenses like Maryland and Illinois, this is the game for you. Saint Mary’s can be a beautiful thing to watch, if you enjoy a team that runs its offense, sticks to its plans and seldom panics.

The Gaels have become an NCAA tournament fixture for that reason. While Gonzaga kept collecting title after title in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary’s gradually built its program to where it could compete with the Bulldogs. Of course, that meant competing nationally, and by doing so, Saint Mary’s has now made five of the past seven NCAA tournaments. Given that Gonzaga usually wins the WCC automatic bid — but not last year, as Saint Mary’s won both the regular season and tournament title — that’s saying something.

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San Francisco is trying to get itself up to that level. The Dons broke through to the NCAA tournament in 2022, but they once again failed to get out of the first round. San Francisco has a chance to get an at-large bid, but the Dons have to go into this game thinking sweep. At 16-5 with only one non-Quad 1 loss (at Washington State), San Francisco has stacked a nice record together, but it’s a little light on quality wins.

The good news for the Dons is that with Santa Clara improving and Oregon State in the conference, there are more chances than usual for San Francisco to get good wins. The bad news is that there still aren’t a ton of them. At some point, San Francisco has to beat some people, and the Dons have already missed opportunities against Memphis, Clemson, Bradley and Santa Clara. Other than Gonzaga, this is the best possible win available in the WCC.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Thursday, January 23 at 9 p.m.

Where: McKeon Pavilion, Moraga, Calif.

TV: CBS Sports Network

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

San Francisco vs. Saint Mary’s In-Season Trends

It’s been a rough stretch for San Francisco in this matchup. The schools are just 25 miles apart, but they’ve been a world away from each other on the court, where Saint Mary’s has won the past 10 meetings. The Dons have covered in their past two trips to Moraga, but Saint Mary’s is 8-2 ATS since San Francisco’s last win in the series.

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When you think of Saint Mary’s, you usually think of low totals. That is not the case in this matchup. San Francisco is comfortable attacking the Saint Mary’s defense, and the Gaels usually respond by putting up points. The over has cashed in six of the past seven meetings.

The Difference-Makers

Malik Thomas has to be big in this game. Saint Mary’s has one major weakness on defense: it does not defend the 3-point shot very well. The Gaels usually frustrate their opponents when they try to score within 20 feet, but outside of that, they can be beaten. Thomas shot 67% from behind the arc last time out against Oregon State, and he’ll need another big showing to win this one.

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Paulius Murauskas has been strong on the boards all season, and Saint Mary’s tends to dominate most games on the glass. If the Gaels win on second chances, the Dons are in trouble.

The Pick

Double digits seems to be a little much for how this series has gone lately. San Francisco tends to hang around against Saint Mary’s before ultimately succumbing with a cover in defeat.

Most likely, that’s going to happen again. The Gaels have the stronger team, but San Francisco is likely to hit enough 3-pointers to keep the game close.