San Diego State vs. Boise State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 1, 2024

SAN DIEGO STATE VS. BOISE STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 1, 2024 — The playoff has laid out everything Boise State ever wanted: a clear, unimpeded shot at the title. All the Broncos have to do is run the table, and it’s theirs. With the Big 12 and the ACC having a title picture as clear as mud and the rest of the Group of 5 producing next to nothing (Army would take the automatic bid if the Black Knights can beat Notre Dame and win out, but even then, Boise would qualify as an at-large if it went 12-1 with its only loss being Oregon), the Broncos even have a slim chance at a first-round bye.

But that’s a long way off. The Broncos first have to take care of business in the Mountain West, and that means taking care of the Aztecs. San Diego State has been a tough out for Boise over the years, as the teams have mostly split their meetings. Over the course of their history, Boise only leads 5-4.

Related: Pistols Misfiring: Why Oklahoma State is Struggling

Here’s the thing that should scare Boise State: the Broncos have never won three straight in this series. In fact, neither team has. Over the past eight games, the pattern has been simple: two wins for San Diego State, two wins for Boise State, rinse and repeat.

The Aztecs will also be in desperation mode, as they’ve got to find their way to six wins. To its credit, San Diego State scheduled tough this season with a pair of Pac-12 games. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, that backfired hard when the Pac-12 blew up and the Mountain West took on both Oregon State and Washington State as riders for 2024. They’ve played and lost to both, which has them at 3-4 with five to play. If they can’t find a win here, they’ll have to all but run the table.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, November 1 at 8 EST

Where: Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho 

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

San Diego State vs. Boise State In-Season Trends

When you get off to a slow start, people stop paying attention. And that’s exactly what has happened with San Diego State. The Aztecs looked bad for the first three weeks of the season, but they’ve now covered four games in a row. San Diego State gave Washington State fits last week, and while the Cougars might not be a top-tier team, they’re still a top-25 squad.

Related: Is Indiana’s Rise Under Curt Cignetti For Real?

Boise has won five in a row, and it’s covered in four of them. The Broncos’ one miss in that stretch came against Portland State, and that was just barely, as the Vikings were getting 42.5 and the Broncos won by 42. With their only loss coming by 3 at top-ranked Oregon, the Broncos have shown themselves to be a strong team.

Weather

This might not be the right game for San Diego State to compete. It’s going to be chilly with showers in the forecast, as temperatures will slip into the mid 40s on an Idaho evening.

The Difference-Makers

Ashton Jeanty has been fantastic all year for Boise State, rushing for 1,376 yards and 18 touchdowns already. If he keeps up his performance on the ground, it’s hard to see anyone slowing down the Broncos the rest of the way.

Related: Duke vs. Miami Pick and Prediction

San Diego State just isn’t an offense that makes a lot happen. Against Washington State, the Aztecs had three scoring drives of 60 yards or less because of a special teams play and two failed Cougar fourth downs. Danny O’Neil is an accurate passer, but the freshman is still learning how to play at this level.

The Pick

Boise State is really playing well, and there’s a real worry that San Diego State might not be able to keep up on offense. The Aztecs’ defense has been solid, but they’re a lot better against the pass than the run.

That’s not how you beat Boise State. The best move here is to bite the bullet and take the Broncos.