Saints vs. Chiefs Expert Pick

Saints vs. Chiefs Expert Pick

Bye weeks have started, so we are back to the standalone Monday Night Football game. The New Orleans Saints will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead. Patrick Mahomes has his team undefeated this season but lost his favorite target, Rashee Rice. Kansas City fans will have their eyes glued to two games as the Royals and Yankees play game two of the ALDS, which starts about half an hour prior. Read more Saints vs. Chiefs expert pick.

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Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 29, 2024 @ 8:20 PM EST

Where: M&T Bank Stadium

TV: NBC

Saints vs. Chiefs Expert Pick

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New Orleans Saints

The Saints lost to the Falcons last week, 26-24, to move to 2-2 on the season. Younghoe Koo kicked the game-winning field goal with two seconds left, and the Saints suffered their second consecutive blown lead in the final minute. Alvin Kamara is off to a hot start, rushing for 90.5 yards per game with 43.5 receiving yards per game.

Taysom Hill (ribs) has been ruled out on Monday. Linebacker Willie Gay (hand) and defensive end Payton Turner (knee) are also not playing. Guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) and lineman Shane Lemieux (ankle) have also been ruled out upfront. Demario Davis (hamstring) and lineman Lucas Patrick (groin) are questionable.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs beat the Chargers, 17-10, last week. Travis Kelce had his best game with seven catches for 89 yards but has yet to find the end zone this season. They have won multiple close games to start the season, which is no surprise for the reigning Super Bowl champs.

Rashee Rice (knee) will have a procedure this week to determine the severity of the damage done. They are still without Isiah Pacheco (fibula) for multiple weeks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is doubtful after starting the season on the non-football illness list. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman (knee) is listed as questionable.

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs Head-To-Head

The Saints have played two close games in the past two weeks and have lost both of them. The Chiefs have played four games that have come down to the wire and have managed to win them all. This game will likely be close, too, because these defenses are tough to play against.

The Chiefs allow 99 rushing yards per game, and the Saints allow 96.5 rushing yards per game. They both do a great job of limiting the opponent’s ground game, which forces them to pass. Both teams allow around 230 passing yards per game but limit teams to 18 points per game. The telling stat is the turnover differential for each team. The Saints have a +3 turnover differential with six interceptions and two fumble recoveries. The Chiefs have a -4 turnover differential with only one interception and seven giveaways.

Travis Kelce will have to play a big role in this game without Rashee Rice. Dallas Goedert caught 10 passes for 170 in week three against this defense, but no other tight end has eclipsed 45 yards against them. The best matchup for the Saints on offense may be for Juwan Johnson. The Chiefs have allowed 91.25 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season but only one TD to the position. Taysom Hill may not be playing, but Johnson and Foster Moreau can make plays. This game will come down to quarterback play and who commits more turnovers.

Prediction

Over/Under

These defenses are too good, and both teams have injuries they are dealing with on the offensive side of the ball. I expect this game to go under 43 points. Under 43

Spread

The Chiefs probably win this game, but I think it will come down to the wire. Harrison Butker’s leg may be needed to save the day for them, but the Saints can cover. Saints +5.5

Player Prop

Kelce has to impact this game if the Chiefs want a chance. Rashee Rice leads the team with 7.3 targets per game, with Kelce at 5.3 per game. He will get a lot more than that this week with the depleted offense they will be trotting out. Travis Kelce anytime TD +115