Sacramento State vs. San Jose State Expert Pick and Prediction – August 29, 2024

SACRAMENTO STATE VS. SAN JOSE STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 29, 2024 — If Sacramento State pulls this off again, this might be one of the last times an FBS team schedules the Hornets. Sac State is now gunning for its third consecutive win over an FBS foe, having beaten Stanford last year and routed Colorado State the year before. Since Troy Taylor arrived in California’s capital in 2019, Sac State has earned a reputation as a tough out against FBS competition.

Andy Thompson picked up where Taylor left off when the latter went to Stanford, immediately beating his old boss. The Hornets finished last season 8-5, reaching the second round of the FCS playoffs. Once again, they’re highly regarded, as they start the year ranked 10th in FCS.

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In other words, San Jose State has a tough assignment. They’ve got a new coach in Ken Niumatalolo, who was last seen running things at Navy. The Spartans come off a good season, having won six straight games to earn a bowl bid and get Brent Brennan the Arizona job. But they only have seven starters back, and everyone’s going to be learning a new offense, coach included.

Niumatalolo ran the triple option to great success at Navy, but he was never wedded to it the way his old boss Paul Johnson was. He did it out of necessity at a service academy, and he no longer has those restrictions. But can he adjust quickly enough to handle a team that’s done this year after year and is very capable of another stunner?

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, August 29 at 10 p.m. EST

Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, Calif.

TV: truTV

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 27th, 2024.

Sacramento State vs. San Jose State In-Season Trends

Sacramento State’s success against the FBS is no overnight sensation. The Hornets have only won in their past two tries, but they’ve covered the number in six consecutive meetings against FBS opponents. That includes three opponents from the old Pac-12, as California and Arizona State both gave 20+ points and never got the margin above 14. The books got smarter by the time Sac State met Stanford, only making the Cardinal a 6.5-point favorite, but the Hornets covered anyway by winning the game.

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San Jose State has answered the bell against FCS opponents, going 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS against the lower division in the past 12 seasons. But they failed to cover against Big Sky opponent Portland State, surviving by four points while giving 21.5 to the Vikings. Sac State’s also from the Big Sky, widely considered the second-best league in FCS. 

Weather

It should be a pleasant day by the time the teams kick off. Temperatures are projected to hit the 70s by the window of this game, with no precipitation in the forecast.

The Difference-Makers

This isn’t a good spot for San Jose State, as quarterback Kaiden Bennett is easily the most experienced signal caller on the field. Bennett can make plays with both his arm and his legs, as he ran for 100 yards against Stanford and accounted for 379 yards of offense overall. Sac State brings back four offensive line starters and three of its top four wideouts, so Bennett will have no shortage of options or time.

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Former quarterback Nick Nash becomes the top returning receiver for the Spartans, who are trying to find their next quarterback after most of the team either graduated or followed Brennan to Tucson. Until someone emerges, San Jose State is a question mark.

The Pick

This has been one of the biggest red flags on the schedule in Week 1. Sacramento State is a very good and very experienced FCS team, and San Jose State is neither of those things at the FBS level. The Spartans will get this figured out over time, and they might become very dangerous over the course of the season.

But past history says they’re in a tight spot here. Sacramento State should probably be favored here, and the Hornets just might win yet another one over the FBS.