Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Expert Pick – February 11, 2024

SACRAMENTO KINGS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 11, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

After our earlier look at the Celtics vs. Heat, the other game on tap from Sunday’s slate features the Sacramento Kings (30-21 SU, 27-24 ATS) taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (35-17 SU, 31-20-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, February 11, 2024

Time: 3:00 PM ET

Where: Paycom Center

Location: Oklahoma City, OK

TV: BSOK and NBCS-CA

Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Kings Hand The Thunder Their Third Straight Loss?

Sacramento Kings Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.7 PPG – 8^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.5 points per 100 possessions – 14^TH
• Scoring Defense: 117.9 PPG – 21^ST         
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.7 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH

The Sacramento Kings have been playing some good basketball over the last couple of weeks. They have produced seven wins in their last 10 outings. As a result, they are now tied with the Phoenix Suns for the fifth-best record in the Western Conference.

Sacramento recently snapped its two-game slide with an impressive 135-106 victory over the defending champions on Friday night. Domantas Sabonis was an integral part of the team’s offense as he finished with 17 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists. He now leads the league in triple-doubles this season with 16.

Keegan Murray also scored 17 points and recorded two assists. De’Aaron Fox chipped in with 15 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.

Sacramento played a much better game against Denver than they did in a 133-120 loss to the Detroit Pistons last week.

“It’s up to us to lock in, focus on the small details and go out there and perform for 48 minutes from start to finish,” Brown said, via CBS Sports. “If we do, we’ll be happy where we are at the end of the year.”

Following a win against the defending champs, the Kings can ill afford a sub-par effort against a Thunder team seeking to snap a two-game losing streak.

Can The Thunder Avoid Their First Three-Game Losing Streak Of The Season?

Oklahoma City Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.6 PPG – 5^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.1 points per 100 possessions – 5^TH       
• Scoring Defense: 113.7 PPG – 13^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.3 points per 100 possessions – 6^TH

Meanwhile, the Thunder have struggled a bit in their last few outings. Although they have posted six wins across their last 10 decisions, they enter this matchup amid a two-game losing streak.

This includes a 124-117 loss to Utah a week ago and an abysmal 146-111 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced OKC’s offense with 25 points, six rebounds, and six assists. Chet Holmgren added 13 points and 12 rebounds, while Josh Giddey contributed 11 points, three rebounds, and three assists.

The Thunder’s defense was nearly non-existent in the opening 12 minutes as the Mavericks poured in 47 points.

“They shot it well early, but that’s where some of the transition, like straight up fast break plays really hurt you,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said, via ESPN. “Because when you’re giving up easy ones and they’re making shots, then that’s how the 47 can happen in the first quarter.”

Additionally, OKC shot just 38.8 percent from the field and 36.2 percent (17-for-47) from beyond the arc. A much better effort will be needed to snap their losing streak against a Sacramento team that continues to move up in the standings.

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Thunder opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The line has dipped to 3.5 points for the home team. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against OKC.
• Sacramento boasts an 8-2 ATS in their last eight road contests against the Thunder.
• In their last eight matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the Kings are 4-2 against the spread.
• The Thunder are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings.
• Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Western Conference opponents.

Going with the road team to cover is a good bet given the above trends.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings (+3.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 239.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed. Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER in each of the Kings’ last five games.
• In Sacramento’s last six February games, the OVER total prevailed each time.
• The total has gone OVER eight times in the Thunder’s last nine matchups against Pacific Division teams.
• In OKC’s last five February contests, the OVER total hit ALL five times.

Prediction: OVER 239.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch in this matchup is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He currently has -135 odds of scoring more than 31.5 points and +105 odds of finishing with less than 31.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31 points per outing.
• In 25 home contests this season, he is averaging 31.3 PPG.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played against Western Conference teams 33 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 30.1 points per outing.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has played against Pacific Division opponents 11 times this season. In those contests, he has averaged 32.2 points per game.
• Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 30.5 points per outing, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Going with the “over” for SGA is the smart choice based on the above trends.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 points