Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans Expert Pick – November 20, 2023

SACRAMENTO KINGS VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS EXPERT PICK – NOVEMBER 19, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap for Monday night features the Sacramento Kings (8-4) going on the road to take on the New Orleans Pelicans (6-7).

Here is a look at which of these teams has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, November 20, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET

Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

TV: BSNO and NBCS-CA

Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Kings were just 2-4 through their first six contests. But this squad is hot right now, having rattled off six straight wins. This includes an impressive 129-113 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night.

Domantas Sabonis paced the Kings with 32 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists. He also shot an efficient 13-for-15 from the field. De’Aaron Fox added 30 points, seven assists, and four rebounds. Fox also tied a career-high with six 3-point field goals. The Kings shot 53.3 percent from the field and 42.5 percent from 3-point range.

The Pelicans come into this matchup having won two of their last three contests. In their recent outing, they were defeated by the Minnesota Timberwolves 121-120. Brandon Ingram led the Pels with 30 points, seven boards, and four assists. Jonas Valanciunas added 26 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks.

The Kings have the ninth-best scoring offense (117.0 PPG), but they are ranked 19th in scoring defense (114.4 PPG), and they are ranked 15th in efficiency. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are ranked 18th in scoring (112.1 PPG), 21st in scoring defense (115.6 PPG), and 19th in defensive efficiency. Given these trends, this has the potential to be a high-scoring affair.

The Picks

The Spread

The Kings opened at a two-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to one point. Let’s look at why picking the road team to cover is the smart choice.

• The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five contests overall.
• Sacramento is an impressive 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
• The Pelicans are just 2-7 ATS in their last matchups against teams in the Pacific Division.

Prediction: Sacramento Kings (-1)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 238 points. That line has moved to 237 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why picking the UNDER could be the way to go.

• These two teams are averaging a combined 228 points per contest.
• The UNDER total has hit four times in Sacramento’s last six road games against New Orleans.
• In the Kings’  last six games against Pacific Division teams, the UNDER total has prevailed four times.
• The UNDER has hit for New Orleans six times in their last nine games against Sacramento.
• In the last 20 times in which New Orleans has been the underdog, the UNDER has hit 13 times.

Prediction: UNDER 237 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this matchup is Domantas Sabonis. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 21.5 points.

In 15 career games against New Orleans, Sabonis is averaging just 12.9 points per outing, which is considerably lower than the projected point total.

On the other hand, he is averaging 20.8 points per game during the season, which is just slightly lower than the projected total for this contest. Additionally, Sabonis has exceeded the 21.5-point total six times in his last seven outings. That said, I am going with the OVER for Sabonis in this one.

Prediction: Domantas Sabonis OVER 21.5 points