Sacramento Kings vs. LA Clippers Expert Pick – February 25, 2024

SACRAMENTO KINGS VS. LA CLIPPERS EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 25, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Lakers vs. Suns, one of the other games on tap from Sunday’s slate features the Sacramento Kings (32-23 SU, 28-27 ATS) taking on the LA Clippers (37-18 SU, 29-26 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, February 25, 2024

Time: 9:30 PM ET

Where: Crypto.com Arena

Location: Los Angeles, CA

TV: ESPN

Related: Lakers vs. Suns Expert Pick

Sacramento Kings vs. LA Clippers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Sacramento Kings vs. LA Clippers — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Will The Third Time Be The Charm For Sacramento?

 Sacramento Kings Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.6 PPG – 8^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.4 points per 100 possessions – 14^TH
• Scoring Defense: 118.0 PPG – 19^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.8 points per 100 possessions – 19^TH

Following a season in which they finished with the third-best record in the Western Conference, the Kings find themselves in a virtual tie with the Phoenix Suns for the No. 7 spot. Although Sacramento is 5-5 in its last 10 outings, they enter this matchup riding a two-game winning streak.

This includes a 102-98 win over the Denver Nuggets on Feb. 14 followed by a 127-122 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday night. De’Aaron Fox scored a team-high 28 points to go along with nine assists, and five rebounds.

Domantas Sabonis – who was a game-time decision due to an illness – finished with 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists. This marked his fourth triple-double in his last five outings. Not only that, but Sabonis has finished with at least a double-double in his last 38 games. A remarkable feat, to say the least.

Although the Spurs have the third-worst record in the league, they gave the Kings all they could handle as they had a four-point lead with less than three minutes to play. Sacramento finally put the game out of reach with a 9-0 run down the stretch. The Kings are 0-2 against the Clippers and will need a much better effort if they hope to break into the win column against their divisional foes.

Can The Clippers Continue Their Dominance Over The Kings?

 LA Clippers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.7 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.0 points per 100 possessions – 4^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 112.7 PPG – 9^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.9 points per 100 possessions – 13^TH

Meanwhile, the Clippers are tied with the Denver Nuggets for the No. 3 spot in the conference playoff race. Los Angeles has posted seven wins in their last 10 outings.

This includes a 101-95 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night. Kawhi Leonard was one of four Clippers starters to reach double figures. He led the team with 24 points, eight rebounds, and four assists.

Terance Mann scored 23 points and hauled in 12 rebounds. Paul George added 14 points and five rebounds. Thanks to a 26-16 scoring edge in the third quarter, the Clippers took a 79-75 lead into the final frame. But the short-handed Grizzlies managed to keep the game close until the end despite shooting 41.8 percent from the field and 22.9 percent from beyond the arc.

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Clippers opened as a consensus five-point favorite. The line climbed up to 6.5 points before dropping back down to 5.5 points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Kings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.
• Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in its last six Sunday games.
• The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
• Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Western Conference teams.
• In the Clippers’ last five February games, they are 1-4 against the spread.

As was the case with the Lakers-Suns matchup, this one could go either way, as neither team has fared well against the spread as of late. Being that the Clippers have beaten the Kings by 18 and 17 points respectively, going with the home team to cover looks like the smart play here.

Prediction: LA Clippers (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 238 points. At the time of this writing, the line moved to 239.5 points. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Kings’ last eight road contests against the Clippers.
• The UNDER total is 9-4 in the Clippers’ last 13 contests.
• In Los Angeles’ last 12 matchups against Sacramento, the UNDER total hit eight times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed six times in the Clippers’ last seven Sunday games.
• The teams are averaging a combined 236.3 points per contest, which is three points less than the estimated total.
• From a defensive standpoint, the two ball clubs are allowing a combined 230.7 points per contest, which is nearly nine points less than the projected points total for this matchup.

Prediction: UNDER 239.5 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Domantas Sabonis. My reason is that while he leads the league with 19 triple-doubles, he is averaging just 13 points and 7.5 rebounds in the two previous matchups between these two ball clubs.

Sabonis currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points. Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total.

• During the season, Sabonis is averaging 20.2 points per outing.
• In 25 road contests this season, he is averaging 19.6 PPG.
• Sabonis has played against Western Conference teams 36 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 19.6 points per outing.
• In 12 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Sabonis averages 19.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Sabonis is averaging 21.5 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Based on his recent body of work and the belief he is due for a big game against the Clippers, I am going with the “over” for Sabonis.

Prediction: Domantas Sabonis OVER 20.5 points

One of the key players to watch for the home team is Kawhi Leonard. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points.

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Leonard is averaging 24 points per outing.
• In 23 home contests, he is averaging 22 PPG.
• Leonard has played against Western Conference teams 34 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.5 points per outing.
• In 10 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Leonard is averaging 26 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Leonard has averaged 25.6 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Given the way he has played over the last couple of weeks and the fact that he is averaging 32.5 points per game against the Kings this season, I am going with the over for Leonard as well.

Prediction: Kawhi Leonard OVER 25.5 points