Rutgers vs. Kansas State Expert Pick and Prediction – December 26, 2024

RUTGERS VS. KANSAS STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 26, 2024 — Eighteen years ago, facing Kansas State in a bowl game was the kickstart of Greg Schiano getting people to take Rutgers football seriously. The Scarlet Knights had never before won a bowl game, but they quickly ended that in the 2006 Texas Bowl, routing K-State 37-10 in what became Ron Prince’s only bowl appearance in Manhattan.

Both teams traveled some darker roads after that game, mostly because of the difficulty of replacing your winningest coach. Prince was gone two years later, as Kansas State brought back Bill Snyder from his three-year sabbatical until Snyder finally retired for good. The Wildcats got it right the second time with Chris Klieman, who hasn’t set the world on fire at K-State but has consistently won eight to 10 games.

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Rutgers found things much tougher after Schiano left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That didn’t work out, and neither did the Scarlet Knights’ attempts to move forward. Kyle Flood failed because of player mistreatment, and Chris Ash failed because he couldn’t compete in the Big Ten. Schiano’s return to Piscataway has once again meant another three years to rebuild the foundation, but the house appears to at least have the first floor constructed.

But Rutgers 2.0 might not be ready to compete with Kansas State 2.0. Of course, that depends on which version of Kansas State 2.0 actually shows up. The Wildcats have been maddeningly inconsistent, which is why they weren’t able to win the Big 12. Kansas State was one of the most talented teams in the conference, but could not put things together to get past Arizona State, BYU or Iowa State. That dropped the Wildcats to fifth in the league, landing them here. And that gives this game a large variance: the Wildcats could easily blast the Scarlet Knights, or they could get picked off if Bad K-State shows up again.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, December 26 at 5:30 p.m.

Where: Chase Field, Phoenix

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Rutgers vs. Kansas State In-Season Trends

Greg Schiano is a bettor’s dream. To find the last time when the Scarlet Knights failed to match their game result to their spread result (or get a push) against an FBS opponent, you have to go back to Oct. 14, 2023. Outside of one push in a 14-7 loss to Nebraska, Rutgers has matched its spread and game result in 16 straight games against FBS competition. The only time it hasn’t happened since that game with Michigan State was the season opener, where Rutgers fell three points short of a cover against FCS Howard.

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Kansas State has been far more inconsistent. The Wildcats have only gone 1-4 ATS in their past five games, and they’ve gone just 3-6 ATS in their past nine games. The Wildcats won more often than not, but they let lesser teams hang around with them in victory.

Weather

Phoenix in December is pretty beautiful. Temperatures will hit 62 degrees, and if the weather does turn, the roof can easily be closed.

The Difference-Makers

It’s strength on strength for the Rutgers offense vs. K-State defense, as Kyle Monangai brings his 13 rushing touchdowns and 1,279 rushing yards up against the best run defense in the Big 12. K-State was able to slow down Arizona State and Cam Skattebo, so that’s not a great matchup for the Scarlet Knights.

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But the problem for the Wildcats is that the offense has been really inconsistent. In losses to Houston and Arizona State, Avery Johnson threw just one touchdown against four interceptions, and the Wildcat offense sputtered as a result. K-State can’t shoot itself in the foot again.

The Pick

Rutgers isn’t quite up to K-State’s level, if the Wildcats play the way they’re capable of playing. The concern is whether the K-State offense will play up to its abilities or continue its slog through the mud. The offense did play better against Iowa State, but the consistency is very worrisome.

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Rutgers tends to be a defense-first team, and K-State’s defense has the advantage against what the Scarlet Knights do well. The best play here is probably to play the total and stay away from the teams. If you have to take someone, I’ll reluctantly back the Powercats.