Royals vs. Orioles: AL Wild Card Analysis
ROYALS VS. ORIOLES: AL WILD CARD ANALYSIS — Can Baltimore make up for what happened last year? The Orioles’ rise was a joyride last season, as the O’s went 101-61 just two years after going 52-110. But reality crashed hard in Baltimore when the Orioles ran into Texas and got wiped out in three games.
This is a different situation. These Orioles come in with lowered expectations after being 10 wins worse than last season, but they have more experience and are more aware of their flaws. They also have a better idea of what it takes to win in October, something they didn’t have last time.
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Their opponent is basically where they were last year. The Royals’ rise came two years after their own 100-loss season, as they quickly rebuilt their club and came out of a surprisingly deep AL Central. But Kansas City has had a few cracks appear over the past month, as the Royals kind of backed in down the stretch. Instead of rolling into the postseason with momentum, the Royals barely hung on to their spot and only figured things out at the end.
On one hand, Kansas City might be out of gas mentally after rising so quickly so soon. On the other, the Royals did respond well after getting pushed by the Tigers and Twins down the stretch. Kansas City has the talent and several advantages in this series — if it doesn’t get the same deer in headlights look that Baltimore had last year.
The Series
Game 1: Tuesday, October 1 at 4 p.m. EST
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2 at 4:30 p.m. EST
Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, October 3 at 4 p.m. EST
TV: Game 1 will be shown on ESPN2. Games 2 and 3 will be shown on ESPN.
Where: All games will be played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Royals vs. Orioles In-Season Trends
It’s hard to glean much from the teams’ earlier meeting, because the Royals and Orioles haven’t played since April. Baltimore won the season series 4-2, but Kansas City was still getting its sea legs under it. Remember, this was a Royals team that lost over 100 games just two years earlier and didn’t yet know if its sacrifices would bear fruit.
Kansas City’s main concern is not letting Baltimore’s bats get hot. The Orioles have won six of eight against the Royals, and five of the six wins came when the O’s scored at least five runs. Even though the Baltimore bullpen is not good, Kansas City can’t afford to rely on that to come out ahead.
Players to Watch
If not for Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. would have had an MVP season. Down the stretch, he’s been one of the only reliable bats the Royals have. He’s got to be a big part of the Kansas City offense if the Royals intend to survive here.
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As important as the Orioles’ offense is in this series. Corbin Burnes will set the tone. If he’s on his game, the Orioles become favorites to win the series. If he struggles and Kansas City gets into the bullpen early, it can ruin the entire series. The Royals badly want to get into the Baltimore bullpen, but Burnes usually doesn’t allow more than two innings from the pen. If he can go seven, the Orioles’ chances drastically improve.
The Prediction
Like the other ALWC series, Game 1 is likely where the series will be won or lost. Burnes against Cole Ragans is an excellent matchup, and I trust Burnes and Baltimore more. Burnes has the experience and the Orioles’ hitters are more reliable than those of the Royals.
Kansas City looked exhausted coming down the stretch. The Royals didn’t play well for the past month and looked like they kind of backed their way into the postseason. Baltimore has had its problems in the second half, but the Orioles appear the stronger and more focused team. Maybe Kansas City steals one off the bullpen, but it’s hard to see the Royals getting two.
Prediction: Orioles in two
