Royals vs. Nationals: Wednesday, September 25, 2024

ROYALS VS. NATIONALS: WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 — The Royals’ tailspin couldn’t have come at a worse time, and now Kansas City finds itself in a very tight spot. After a seven-game skid that only ended on Tuesday, Kansas City is now tied for the fifth playoff spot in the American League with Detroit.

The fact that the Tigers came from out of nowhere to potentially steal a playoff spot is bad enough. But for Kansas City, it’s downright terrifying, because the Royals might now be forced into a matchup with the Astros. Technically, the Royals hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers. But Kansas City finishes the season with the equally desperate Braves, while Detroit gets to end with the historically awful White Sox. And that means that there’s a real possibility that despite being tied, it might no longer be possible for the Royals to stay ahead of the Tigers without Detroit making a major mistake.

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Before Kansas City can think about that, however, it must take care of business in Washington. Falling behind the Tigers and facing a road series with the Astros is one thing. Falling out of the postseason entirely would be quite another, and that’s still possible. Kansas City holds a two-game lead on Minnesota and Seattle, who are trying to find their way in. Fortunately for the Royals, the Twins don’t have a schedule advantage; they’ve got to play the Orioles in the final weekend.

But failing to take care of business in Washington could open the door for someone to nose out Kansas City. The best thing the Royals can do now is sweep the Nats and limit the damage in Atlanta, which would set them up for no worse than a trip to Houston. At this point, Kansas City would take that.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Wednesday, September 25 at 6:45 p.m. EST

Where: Nationals Park, Washington

Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen, KC (7-6, 3.43 ERA, 92 K’s) vs. DJ Herz, WSH (4-8, 4.30 ERA, 103 K’s)

Public Bets: 66% on Kansas City

Public Money: 75% on Kansas City

Royals vs. Nationals In-Season Trends

These teams play close games. The past four meetings (the only ones to be played since COVID and the schedule changes) have all been decided by two runs or less. That tracks with Washington’s season, as the Nats could have been in the playoff race if they could win one-run games. Washington has covered the spread 17 times without winning the game (and the Nats are usually the underdog, so that’s a sign of their ability to keep things close).

The biggest reason Kansas City has hit the skids is the Royals’ team-wide hitting slump. Kansas City has scored just seven runs in its past six games and been shut out twice. The Royals’ pitching has matched to whatever it needs to do in order to keep the game close (outside of a 9-0 beatdown in San Francisco), so the under has tended to be the play. For whatever reason, Kansas City’s bats just aren’t working right now.

Players to Watch

About the only one in blue that anyone can count on to hit right now is Bobby Witt Jr. He’s hit safely in five straight games and has eight hits in that stretch, including a two-hit game Tuesday. The problem is that the rest of the Royal lineup just isn’t giving him much help.

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There isn’t a lot of pop in the Nationals’ bats. Luis Garcia leads the Nats with 16 home runs, but he’s had just one blast and six hits in his past eight games. If Kansas City isn’t going to break this slump, at least Washington’s struggles give the Royals a chance.

The Prediction

Pulling Lorenzen out of Texas has worked out nicely for Kansas City. Outside of one struggle against St. Louis, Lorenzen hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of his starts since donning Royal blue.

The bats aren’t doing it for Kansas City at the moment, so it’s got to be the pitching. Lorenzen at least sets the Royals up to succeed.