REDS VS. PIRATES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – JUNE 17, 2024

REDS VS. PIRATES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – JUNE 17, 2024 – The Pittsburgh Pirates (34-37) host the Cincinnati Reds (34-37) in the first of a three-game series. All eyes will be on Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes as he looks to remain undefeated (3-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings) in his seventh start of the season. This could prove to be a pivotal NL Central series as both teams look to break away from the jumbled division and Wild Card standings. 

PNC Park will be electric on Monday night as the city of Pittsburgh has fully embraced this rocket-armed pitching ace. It’s been a decade since there was this much excitement about the Pirates team, but they remain three games under .500. They must win games against teams like the Reds to improve their stock and become “Buyers” at the trade deadline.

The Odds 

First Pitch

When: Monday, June 17 at 6:40 p.m. EST 

Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh

Starting Pitchers: Carson Spears, CIN (0-0, 2.33 ERA, 15 K’s) vs. Paul Skenes, PIT (3-0, 2.43 ERA, 46 K’s)

Public Bets: 81% on Pittsburgh

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 17, 2024

Reds vs. Pirates In-Season Trends

• The Pirates have won 12 of the 28 (42.9%) games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• Pittsburgh has played as favorites of -193 or more once this season and won that game.
• The Pirates and their opponents have hit the over in 34 of 71 games this season.
• The Reds have been underdogs in 39 games this season and won 15 (38.5%) times in those games. 
• Cincinnati has a win-loss record of 2-2 when favored by +161 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The Reds and their opponents have gone over the total this season in 31 of its 71 chances. 

Players to Watch

While the focus is on Skenes, the Pirates have a few other players that are getting hot heading into the summer stretch of the season. Bryan Reynolds leads the team with a .267 batting average and 38 RBI’s. He also has nine home runs this year. Andrew McCutchen has a team-high 10 home runs and is on a three-game hitting streak. During his last five games he hit .300 with a double, two home runs, a walk and two RBI. Nick Gonzales has been a pleasant surprise for a team desperate for hitting. He is 14-for-41 with three doubles and two home runs over the last 10 games. 

Elly De La Cruz is a legitimate superstar for the Reds and has a team-best 12 home runs while adding 11 doubles and three triples to his stat line. Jeimer Candelario is having a great start to his season and is 14-for-40 with three doubles and two home runs over the past 10 games. The Reds will bring out Carson Spiers for his first start of the season. He has been impressive in relief this season with a 2.33 ERA and averages 7 strikeouts per nine innings. 

The Pick 

I am picking the Pirates in every game that Skenes is on the mound, until he proves me wrong. The problem is when he leaves the game in the sixth inning and the bullpen comes in for relief. What was supposed to be the strength of this team has struggled and should be a point of emphasis if they are buyers at the deadline. With that said the Pirates still win but give up some late runs.  Take the Pirates money line and the over at eight runs.