Purdue vs. Michigan Expert Pick and Prediction – February 11, 2025

PURDUE VS. MICHIGAN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 11, 2025 — Can Purdue come up with yet another Big Ten title, despite missing Zach Edey from last year’s team? The Boilermakers took a big step in that direction in January, when they whacked Michigan by 27 in West Lafayette, the first of four straight wins for Matt Painter’s team.

Now they’ve got to come up big again, and they have to do it during one of their toughest stretches of the season. Over the next four games, Purdue will face both Michigan schools and Indiana, with only a home game with Wisconsin to break up the travel. Win those games, and Purdue likely wins the Big Ten regular season crown yet again.

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Michigan is looking like it might be a little bit inflated at this point in the season. The Wolverines were probably a beneficiary of getting many of their weaker opponents early, as they have not played a very impressive league slate to date. Winning at UCLA and Wisconsin was impressive, but Michigan reads more like Indiana football, having feasted on the lesser Big Ten squads to get its record.

Things are about to get a lot harder in Ann Arbor. Over the rest of the regular season, the Wolverines will only face one game outside Quad 1, that being home to Rutgers. Other than that and a visit to Nebraska, the Wolverines don’t play another team outside the top 30 until Indianapolis. And against Purdue, the Wolverines weren’t even close.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, February 11 at 7 p.m.

Where: State Farm Center, Ann Arbor, Mich.

TV: Peacock

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Purdue vs. Michigan In-Season Trends

The first meeting was one-way traffic for a specific reason: Michigan couldn’t hold on to the ball. Purdue led the whole way, and that made it five times in six that the Boilers have won this matchup. That includes the past two visits to Ann Arbor, which have been closer but have ultimately been Purdue wins. Last year, Michigan covered the number, but only because the Wolverines were catching 13.5.

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Expecting points has been the way to go in this game, because Purdue’s shooters really seem to be at their best against Michigan. The Boilers have won the past two games in West Lafayette by an average of 29.5 points for a reason: because they’ve hit just about everything. The over has cashed in four straight meetings between the teams. 

The Difference-Makers

If you can’t stop Braden Smith, good luck with handling Purdue. The Boilermakers expect a lot from both Smith and Fletcher Loyer in the backcourt, and either can beat a team on any given night. In the first meeting, Smith went for 24 points despite never scoring from outside the perimeter, while Loyer shot 50% from deep.

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Tre Donaldson finished with six turnovers in the loss, and Michigan coughed it up 22 times over the course of the game. Donaldson has to do a better job making sure the ball gets where it needs to go here.

The Pick

This shouldn’t be as bad as what happened in West Lafayette. But just because the game is going to be at Crisler Center doesn’t mean Michigan should be favored. The Wolverines are improved, but you usually don’t close a 27-point gap just because you switch venues.

Purdue has a long history of showing up in the biggest moments. That’s likely going to happen again here. This should be a much closer game, but the Boilers look to be the safer pick.