Premier League Picks: Matchweek 23

Premier League Picks: Matchweek 23

PREMIER LEAGUE PICKS: MATCHWEEK 23 – The next round of Premier League action gets under way this weekend. I apologize for the absence of content last week.

Between pickup soccer on the beach with the locals and the horrible wifi of Sayulita, Mexico, I found little time for work. Anyway, I’m back stateside so let’s highlight some of the key fixtures.

Newcastle look to remain in the top 4 by ending their knack for draws and actually getting all 3 points versus a bottom 3 team in Bournemouth. 

Liverpool will try to get back on track against their Merseyside rivals Everton.

Manchester City will have 2 games in 4 days. Who will Pep Guardiola rest on Sunday versus Aston Villa before his team takes on the League leaders of Arsenal just 3 days later?

Let’s go!

Click here to read our Bundesliga Picks for Matchweek 20.

Crystal Palace (12th) vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6th)

Date: Saturday, 02/11/2023 at 10:00 AM EST

Pitch: Crystal Palace- Selhurst Park, London, England

Current PL Form: | Crystal Palace (LDDLL) | Brighton & Hove Albion (WDWWL) |

Last PL Match: | Manchester Utd 2 – 1 Crystal Palace | | Brighton 1 – 0 Bournemouth |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +275 | TIE: +240 | AWAY: +100 |

Prop Bet: | Kaoru Mitoma to Score Anytime (+180) | 

Brighton are in excellent form and so is Kaoru Mitoma. He has played a huge role in Brighton’s success since the departure of Leandro Trossard. Mitoma has scored 4 of his 5 goals since December and has found the back of the net in his 2 previous games. Look for Mitoma to make an impact once again this weekend against Crystal Palace.

Tips

• Crystal Palace are winless and have only managed 2 goals in their last 5 Premier League games.
• Crystal Palace have scored at least 1 goal in their last 9 Premier League matches against Brighton, but with only 1 clean sheet.
• Crystal Palace are undefeated in their last 6 Premier League games against Brighton, but have failed to win their last 4 games at home against Brighton.
• Head to Head History: 38 Crystal Palace wins, 29 draws, 40 Brighton wins.

The Word

Crystal Palace are by no means a pushover and they currently sit in the middle of the table. However, their offensive woes cannot be overlooked. With their top goal scoring threat in Wilfried Zaha being ruled out due to injury and only 1 win in their last 8 Premier League games, I cannot see Crystal Palace giving Brighton much trouble.

Brighton continue their excellent form, winning 6 of their last 10 Premier League games, and sit only 6 points out of the top 4. They have also scored 24 goals in their last 10 Premier League games. With star Alexis MacAllister to return from suspension and Adam Lallana to return from injury, I expect Brighton to continue with their winning ways.

The head to head matches between these squads have been nail biters so expect a close win for Brighton, but a win nonetheless. 

PREDICTION: CRYSTAL PALACE 1 – 2  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION

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Bournemouth (19th) vs Newcastle United (4th) 

Date: Saturday, 02/11/2023 at 12:30 PM EST

Pitch: Bournemouth – Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England

Current PL Form: | Bournemouth (LDLLL) | Newcastle United (DDWDD) |

Last PL Match: | Brighton 1 – 0 Bournemouth | | Newcastle Utd 1 – 1 West Ham Utd |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +550 | TIE: +310 | AWAY: -195 |

Prop Bet: | Newcastle Win to Nil (+125) |

Newcastle have been outstanding defensively this season, conceding a league-best 12 goals. Meanwhile, Bournemtouth have reached the back of the net only 19 times, which is the sixth-worst in the Premier League.

Bournemouth have only scored 3 goals in their current 8 game winless streak. A Newcastle clean sheet should be a solid bet.

Tips

• The last Premier League outing between these two teams ended in a draw. 
• Bournemouth have allowed a leagues worst 43 goals this season.
• Newcastle have a 6 hour bus ride across England to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, England.

The Word

Newcastle currently sit 4th in the table and occupy the last Champions League spot.

They rank 1st in the league in goals allowed and have only lost 1 game this season. On the other hand, Bournemout currently sit in the relegation zone at 19th in the table and have managed only 1 win in their last 12 Premier League games. Newcastle have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams in all competitions.

I could continue…but with what’s already been said, it’s easy to see why I’m backing Newcastle here. 

PREDICTION: BOURNEMOUTH 0 – 1 NEWCASTLE UNITED

Leeds United (16th) vs Manchester United (3rd)

Date: Sunday, 02/12/2023 at 9:00 AM EST

Pitch: Leeds United – Elland Road, Leeds, England

Current PL Form: | Leeds United (DLDLD) | Manchester Utd (DWLDW) |

Last PL Match: | Manchester Utd 2 – 2 Leeds Utd | | Manchester Utd 2 -2 Leeds Utd |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +285 | TIE: +270 | AWAY: -115 |

Prop Bet: | Bruno Fernandes to Score Anytime (+240) |

Bruno Fernandes has been huge for Manchester United this season and has been directly involved in 9 goals, scoring 5 and assisting 4.

Fernandes has had excellent success against Leeds United and he has scored more goals against them than any other Premier League side. He has found the back of the net 6 times in 5 appearances against Leeds United, so betting on him to find his 7th seems pretty likely. 

Tips

• Manchester United have scored 17 goals in the previous 5 matches against Leeds United.
• Manchester United have won 5 of their last 7 matches against Leeds United.
• Manchester United have only lost 1 game in their previous 9 Premier League games.
• Leeds United are winless in their last 8 Premier League games.

The Word

Part two of the Leeds vs. Manchester United saga takes place just four days after they met in the Premier League at Old Trafford in a brilliant 2-2 draw, and I’m expecting another thriller this weekend. 

Despite drawing against Leeds on Wednesday, Manchester United showed grit to get themselves that point after going down 2-0.

I expect Manchester United to get all 3 points this weekend and to have figured out Leeds’ new style of play under interim manager. Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes have proven to be threats for Manchester United so look for them to once again make an impact. 

4 of the last 5 league meetings between Leeds and Man Utd have ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals being produced, while 4 of Leeds’ and 4 of Manchester United’s last six outings in all competitions have ended in the very same way. I can see both teams scoring once again, but this time Manchester United will score more.

PREDICTION: LEEDS UNITED 1 – 2 MANCHESTER UNITED

Manchester City (2nd) vs Aston Villa (11th)

Date: Sunday, 02/12/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: Manchester City – Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England

Current PL Form: | Manchester City (LWWLW) | Aston Villa (LWWDW) |

Last PL Match: | Tottenham 1 – 0 Man. City | | Aston Villa 2 -4 Leicester City |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -450 | TIE: +550 | AWAY: +1000 |

Prop Bet: | Both Teams to Score / Over 2.5 Goals (+130) |

I’m predicting quite a few goals in this game as 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have seen both teams find the back of the net and 5 of those games produced over 2.5 goals. 

Tips

• Manchester City defender John Stones ruled out due to injury.
• Manchester City have only lost 1 out of 11 matches at home.
• Aston Villa have a 3W-2D-5L away record with a -8 goal differential.
• Aston Villa have allowed 31 goals this season which ranks 14th in the league.
• Manchester City have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two squads, but Aston Villa managed a draw earlier this season.

The Word 

Manchester City either score no goals or score 3+ goals. There really hasn’t been much of an in between for them. However, 38 of their 53 goals have been scored at the Etihad and they have managed a goal differential of +26 at home. Keep an eye on Erling Haaland, expect him to score, and expect him to score more.

Aston Villa have seemed to turn around since acquiring manager Unai Emery and have only lost 1 of their last 5 Premier League matches. Aston Villa have managed to score a goal in their last 8 Premier League matches and they will be facing a Manchester City side that have allowed a goal in 7 of their previous 10 Premier League matches. 

I do expect Aston Villa to score, but I expect Manchester City to score more.

PREDICTION: MANCHESTER CITY 3 – 1 ASTON VILLA

Liverpool (10th) vs Everton (18th)

Date: Monday, 02/13/2023 at 3:00 PM EST

Pitch: Liverpool – Anfield, Liverpool, England

Current Form: | Liverpool (LDLLW) | Everton (WLLLD) |

Last PL Match: | Wolverhampton 3 – 0 Liverpool | | Everton 1 – 0 Arsenal |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -205 | TIE: +320 | AWAY: +475 |

Prop Bet: | Under 2.5 (+100) |

The Merseyside Derby is always a tight game and neither team is in goal scoring form this season. I’m expecting Everton to sit back and defend and allow Liverpool to dominate possession. This will likely be a boring game when it comes to offensive excitement.

Tips

• Everton only have 1 away win this season with a -8 goal differential.
• Liverpool have only lost 1 game at Anfield this season.
• Liverpool have allowed 9 goals in 10 matches at Anfield with a +14 goal differential.

The Word

This season will obviously not go down as one of Jurgen Klopp’s best at Liverpool. However, not all is lost just yet. They currently sit in the middle of the table while their cross town rivals Everton sit in the relegation zone. For two very different reasons, this is a MUST win for both teams. If this game ends without a red card, I’ll be extremely surprised.

Liverpool have a better roster than Everton, but they are very banged up. Liverpool will be without Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate, Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota, and Roberto Firmino in Monday’s matchup. Liverpool have yet to win in 2023 and have a 0W-1D-3L record so far this year. However, they only have 1 loss at Anfield this season. The home crowd in the Kopp could prove to be pivotal in this match.

Everton have only managed 1 win from their previous 9 Premier League matches, but that 1 win came less than a week ago and it came against the League leaders Arsenal. In their 1-0 win against Arsenal, Everton dropped back and allowed Arsenal 70% of the possession. I expect them to play the same way against Liverpool. 

PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL  1 – 1 EVERTON

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