Pittsburgh vs. SMU Expert Pick and Prediction – November 2, 2024

PITTSBURGH VS. SMU EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 2, 2024 — It’s prove-it time for the Pittsburgh Panthers, as they now get to see if their ground defense is for real. So far, Pitt has looked good in rolling to a 7-0 start, but the Panthers have admittedly played a weak ACC schedule.

In Syracuse and California, the Panthers have faced two of the weaker ground games in the ACC. The Orange rank second-worst in the league on the ground, and the Golden Bears aren’t a heck of a lot better. Both of those teams prefer to move it through the air, and while Pitt has done fine at pass defense, that’s not the skill the Panthers need here.

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And that’s because SMU runs it like nobody else in the ACC. The Pony Express isn’t quite back, as there’s no Craig James to serve as the No. 2 running back, but the Mustangs are moving the football well. At 201 yards per game, SMU leads the ACC in rushing offense.

The Mustangs also lead the league in run defense, which says that Pitt’s going to have a hard time moving the ball on the ground. To win this game and stay undefeated, the Panthers have to hit the Mustangs through the air.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 2 at 8 EST

Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas 

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Pittsburgh vs. SMU In-Season Trends

When people don’t take you seriously, you can become a great option for bettors. That’s what’s happened with Pitt, as the Panthers have only failed to cover against California. The Panthers are usually a slight underdog to a slight favorite, with very little variance in where the books have them. And usually, what happens is that the Panthers end up pulling out a victory as a small dog and coming up with a big win when favored.

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SMU was on a four-game cover streak until playing a rather weak game against Duke that it really should have lost. The Mustangs admitted that they did not play well against the Blue Devils, but they did manage to hold on. Outside of that, they’ve covered in five of their prior six games, with the exception coming against Big 12-leading BYU.

Weather

This isn’t what Pitt wanted for a pass-friendly game. Storms are likely to hit Dallas, with a chance of rain around 90% for this game. Temperatures won’t be an issue, sitting around 70 degrees.

The Difference-Makers

Stopping SMU means stopping Brashard Smith on the ground. The Mustangs’ running back has been huge for the ground game, as he gets the lion’s share of the carries and doesn’t really have a second back behind him. With nine touchdowns on the year, he’s a big threat that Pitt has to slow down.

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This game is Eli Holstein’s to win or lose. With 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions on the year, Holstein has been a reliable quarterback for the Panthers. He has to put the ball in the air and keep the Panthers’ offense moving.

The Pick

Pitt is doing a great job of staying in games, and SMU isn’t exactly blowing people out. The Mustangs’ emphasis on the ground game means that the clock is likely to move throughout the game. That’s likely to keep the score down, and it should keep the Panthers in the game.

With the dreaded hook in play here, the Panthers should be able to keep this close enough for the cover.