Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos Expert Pick – September 15, 2024

With Russell Wilson sidelined due to injury, the anticipated revenge game against the Denver Broncos has shifted to focus on Justin Fields, who now faces a pivotal opportunity to prove he belongs as a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers look to start 2-0 for the first time since winning 11 straight games in 2020 while the Broncos look to avoid another 0-2 start to the season. Read more Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos Expert Pick – September 15, 2024.

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Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 15 at 4:25 PM ET

Where: Empower Field at Mile High

TV: CBS

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

LOSE YOURSELF

It’s not like Fields’ palms are sweaty and he isn’t about to spit vomit on his sweater with mom’s spaghetti. He is now a veteran quarterback that has plenty of experience, but this may be his last shot to prove he belongs with the elite quarterbacks of the NFL. The injury to Wilson allowed for this opportunity and his mindset is that success is the only option and failure is not. 

“As I’ve gotten to know him, he is a real Steady Eddie,” coach Mike Tomlin said of Fields, via the Steelers’ website. “He’s not overly talkative, but he’s got a steady, strong demeanor… It’s good to be able to communicate with a guy when things get thick and see clear eyes. He’s there. He’s solid as a rock. I think his play and thus our play is reflective of that.”

Eminem lyrics and references aside, we are witnessing, in real time, an athlete at the crossroads of his career. A former first overall draft pick trying to reclaim his destiny. This is why we love and follow the NFL, as it’s real-life drama, action and suspense all wrapped into a three-hour spectacle for all to see. 

What Fields must demonstrate to save his career is an uptick in throwing accuracy and to limit his propensity to turn over the ball. He has a career completion percentage of 60.3% and 68 turnovers in 41 career games. Last week he completed 17 of his 23 passing attempts while rushing for 57 yards on 14 attempts with zero turnovers. It’s safe to say the Steelers would take a quarterback that completes 73% of his passes while protecting the ball. Look for the team to give him more opportunities this week to expand the offense that didn’t reach the endzone last week. 

DIFFERENCE MAKERS

Najee Harris has posted four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career, and he has the most touches of any player since 2021. It may be time to give this man his flowers!

While he may have made disparaging comments about the coaching last season, he has stepped up to lead this team – all while being stripped of his captaincy and not having his fifth-year contract option renewed. He is a man on a mission, just ask the Atlanta Falcons, A.J. Terrell, who was on the receiving end of a stiff arm that made NFL Network’s Kyle Brandt’s Angry Runs segment. 

The Steelers need another receiving option to complement their star wideout, George Pickens. This is where tight-end Pat Freiermuth needs to prove that his 4-year, $48,400,000 contract is money well spent. He’s coming off a season where he only had 32 receptions and 308 receiving yards.

This is not all his fault as the default playstyle for Tomlin’s teams, post Ben Roethlisberger, is to ignore the middle of the field completely. This was on full display last week as Fields didn’t throw to this area once in the game. However, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith said this was only done to avoid linebacker Jessie Bates III whom he coached last season and single-handedly wrecked the Carolina Panthers and quarterback Bryce Young in his NFL debut last season.

“Our Jason Bourne, T.J. Watt, wrecked the game,” Smith said. “Theirs didn’t. That’s what the story of the game really was.”

T.J. WATTAGE

Speaking of T.J. Watt, he will obviously need to be a difference maker just as he was last week in Atlanta. He was so dominant last week that even the awful stat aggregator site, Pro Football Focus, gave him the best grade of all edge-rushers. Something they never do as they are obsessed with Miles Garrett and Micah Parsons. But I digress, Watt against a rookie quarterback should have coach Sean Payton and the rest of the Broncos coaching staff shaking in their boots, or snowboards, ski’s – whatever they fashion in Denver. 

Speaking of the Broncos, they desperately need to win this game to avoid the deadly 0-2 start where only 11% of teams make the post-season. The coaching staff allowed rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, to throw 42 passes in his debut against the Seattle Seahawks last week. He completed 26 of those passes for 138 yards and two interceptions. While this isn’t a great start, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi felt he showed growth and learned from his mistakes.

“The thing I like the most is when we came in on Monday and watched the film, before anything was said, he knew,” Lombardi said Thursday. “He had answers for everything.”

Another factor the looms large for this game is the Broncos home-field advantage that not only includes the fans but the atmospheric pressures of being a mile high in the air. 

“I love playing at home,” wide receiver Courtland Sutton said Wednesday. “It’s one of the best atmospheres to be a part of. The excitement, the juice and the energy, you can feel it from the fans from the moment that they start letting the fans into the stadium. You just feel the juice. I’m excited for it.”

The Pick

With the state of both offenses, winning the turnover battle is more important than ever. The Steelers are 7-1 since 2023 in games they force multiple turnovers. Conversely, they are 0-3 when they are unable to force a turnover. They are 18-4 since 2022 when the team’s starting quarterback does not throw an interception, but the record falls to 2-11 when they throw even one pick in the game. There is a reason there is only a 36.5 over/under for this game. Both teams will have a conservative style to limit turnovers. While it may not be the most exciting game on the schedule this week, it is monumental as their playoff fates could be in balance after only two weeks. 

Expect the Steelers defense to confuse and confound the rookie quarterback and force the necessary turnovers to win the game. Fields will take advantage of this limited game plan and do enough to win the game with a turnover free performance. Harris will get at least one ‘Angry Run’ while amassing over 100 yards rushing. Take the Steelers on the road 20-10.