Pirates vs. Marlins Expert Pick and Prediction – June 22, 2023

PIRATES VS. MARLINS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 22, 2023 — Neither of these teams comes to mind when most people think of the top teams in the National League, and for the Pirates, that might be right. Pittsburgh comes in losers of nine in a row and 10 of 11, and with the Reds burning up the Central, it’s starting to look like Pittsburgh might have flamed out too soon this season.

Statistically, Miami might soon follow, but it hasn’t happened yet. The Marlins are an odd team in that they don’t score many runs, yet they’re nine games over .500.

Even stranger, the Marlins’ starters aren’t particularly outstanding, as only Braxton Garrett has an ERA under 4 among the Marlin rotation. But they’re still winning, because the bullpen just doesn’t give up many runs.

Miami has several arms it can go to at any point, and it tends to bunch its bad pitching performances into games it wasn’t going to win anyway.

It’s the baseball equivalent of drawing an inside straight, and it probably isn’t going to last for much longer. But with the Pirates seemingly in a free fall, it might be time to keep striking while the iron is hot with Miami.

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The Odds

First Pitch

When: Thursday, June 22nd at 6:40 p.m. EDT

Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami

Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller, PIT (8-3, 3.62 ERA, 108 K’s) vs.Braxon Garrett, MIA (3-2, 3.88 ERA, 77 K’s) 

Public Bets: 72% on Miami

Public Money: 72% on Miami

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 21st, 2023

Pittsburgh vs. Miami In-Season Trends

One of the biggest problems for the Pirates right now is that they aren’t scoring much at all. Pittsburgh has scored just five runs in its past five games and gotten shut out three times. To make matters worse, teams are piling on the runs against the Pirates as of late. Since the Cardinals series ended on June 4, Pittsburgh has given up four or more runs 14 times in 15 games.

The Marlins’ success this season has mostly stemmed from beating the teams they’re supposed to beat. Miami is 13-5 in its past 18 games, and it’s won six straight home games against sub-.500 teams. The Marlins have also had a fair amount of success in this series, winning four of five against Pittsburgh.

Players to Watch

When Mitch Keller’s getting run support, he’s one of the toughest pitchers in the National League. When he doesn’t have that kind of support backing him up, it’s hit or miss.

Keller’s had three losses on the season, and all of them saw the Pirates score two runs or less. Keller has pitched well at times without getting much run support, as his last win was a 2-1 victory over the Mets, but it’s a lot more dicey when Pittsburgh isn’t producing at the plate.

The question is always there with the Marlins: Can Luis Arraez keep his average above .400? Arraez slipped slightly to go back down to .398 after a one-hit game against the Blue Jays, but he’s notched 12 hits in his past 18 at-bats. All but one of those have been a single, which says how the Marlins are wasting baserunners. But he’s likely to reach base at least once and possibly more.

The Pick

If Miami wasn’t so wasteful with runners, I’d probably back the Marlins to put up a big number on their own. Pittsburgh isn’t doing much of a job at run prevention right now, and Miami should be in line to score a fair amount. But there’s some worry here given that Keller has mostly been reliable for the Pirates this season.

I think Miami’s going to win, but I’m not messing with the total here, as it’s a little volatile for me.