Pirates vs. Cubs Expert Pick and Prediction – June 13, 2023

PIRATES VS. CUBS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – JUNE 13, 2023 – After losing five of their past seven in California, the Cubs are delighted to come home to Wrigley Field. They’re probably nowhere near as pleased to find the first-place Pirates waiting for them, as Pittsburgh arrives as winners of eight of its past 11.

Nor is it ideal for Chicago to send Jameson Taillon to the mound in this situation. To put it mildly, Taillon has been simply awful this season for Chicago.

He finally got his first win of the season on June 2 against San Diego, but otherwise, the Cubs have done nothing but lose when he takes the hill. Usually, he doesn’t get out of the fifth inning, as he’s failed to complete five in five of his past seven starts. And out of 10 trips to the hill this season, he’s given up at least three runs eight times.

Pittsburgh counters with Luis Ortiz, who’s given up a lot of hits but isn’t giving up a ton of runs. At 35 hits in 27 2/3 innings, you’d expect that he’d be giving up runs far more often than he is, but he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any appearance this year. That’s not exactly great news for a Chicago offense that’s really struggling to produce runs at the moment.

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The Odds

First Pitch

When: Tuesday, June 13th at 8:05 p.m. EDT

Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago

Starting Pitchers: Luis Ortiz, PIT (1-2, 4.23 ERA, 16 K’s) vs. Jameson Taillon, CHC (1-4, 7.02 ERA, 40 K’s) 

Public Bets: 70% on Tampa Bay

Public Money: 82% on Tampa Bay

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 12th, 2023

Pittsburgh vs. Chicago In-Season Trends

Why is Pittsburgh sitting on top of the NL Central? It’s pretty simple: the Pirates are taking care of business inside the division. Pittsburgh has won seven in a row against the division, and they’re 10-4 on the year against the other four teams in the Central. But they’re facing a team that knows how to take full advantage of its off days, as the Cubs are 11-1 when they had the day off the previous day.

The Cubs have also been the one team the Pirates haven’t seen this season, and recent history in his matchup hasn’t been kind to Pittsburgh. The Cubs have won 42 of 60 against the Pirates in Chicago, and those haven’t been high-scoring affairs. The UNDER has cashed in five of the past six games at Wrigley, although that might be in trouble given 13 MPH winds heading toward the right-field fences.

Players to Watch

The Pirates are who they are: a team that manufactures runs rather than puts up big numbers. After all, they’re at their best when they get on base, take the extra base on a steal and turn singles into doubles.

With the wind sending balls to the corner, Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes should be in position to take advantage for an extra base hit or two. Reynolds has hit in seven of eight games and Hayes has nine hits in his past four games, making two or more bases a solid play for either.

On the Cubs’ side of the ledger, expect more than a few free passes here. The Pirates and Cubs both rank in the top five at working out walks, but Taillon is far more generous with his walks than Ortiz is. Taillon has given up multiple walks in three of his past six starts, and there’s a good chance Pittsburgh will wait him out and see if it can create its own opportunities.

The Pick

It’s hard to go against the Cubs when coming off an off day. Consequently, they’re crossing two time zones and facing a Pirates squad that’s played pretty well lately. The Pirates should be in prime position to take advantage of the conditions at Wrigley.

The OVER is a sneaky move here, as neither side hits many home runs. But with the wind blowing out and these two pitchers not exactly putting together top performances, this is the time to go for it.