Pirates vs. Astros: Monday, July 29, 2024

PIRATES VS. ASTROS: MONDAY, JULY 29, 2024 — At a time when Houston needs to be building momentum, it’s instead got the worst possible matchup in the majors right now.

The one saving grace when facing Paul Skenes is the team he plays for. The Pirates are just an average ball club overall, even though they have things going in the right direction. But when Skenes takes the mound, average becomes outstanding. Skenes has been practically automatic at keeping teams from getting going at the plate, even as the Pirates’ offense contributes little.

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That has Pittsburgh still within shouting distance of a wild card berth, although it’s still going to be a tough task. The Pirates have to climb over three other teams to get into the No. 6 spot, and they don’t have many easy wins to fall back on. Getting wins with Skenes on the mound is imperative if Pittsburgh plans to get into the postseason.

Houston, on the other hand, sits in first place in the AL West and has done most of its climbing. The Astros have tended to play to their competition, as they just won key series with Seattle and the Dodgers while losing two of three to Oakland. With that being the case, Houston’s vulnerable in this series opener.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Monday, July 29 at 8:10 p.m. EST

Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes, PIT (6-0, 1.90 ERA, 89 K’s) vs. Jake Bloss, HOU (0-1, 6.94 ERA, 11 K’s)

Public Bets: 66% on Pittsburgh

Public Money: 55% on Pittsburgh

Pirates vs. Astros In-Season Trends

The most incredible thing about Skenes has been something his team shares with him: the Pirates are actually better away than they are at home. The difference for the Pirates isn’t quite as pronounced as Skenes, but this team really doesn’t fear playing away from home, going 27-26 on the road.

Houston’s biggest issue during its early slump was that it just couldn’t cash in runs. The Astros have been far less wasteful during their climb (which is how they got back in the race), but they’re still mostly an under team. In their past 11 games, the under has cashed seven times.

Players to Watch

As dominant as Skenes is, the Pirates do have other players worth watching. One such option is third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who had four hits in the Arizona series and came up with a couple of key RBIs on Sunday.

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Yainer Diaz saw the ball well against the Astros’ California opponents. In his past six games, he’s collected eight hits, and he’s gone for multiple bases in four straight games. That’s going to be tougher against Skenes, but all he needs is two hits or one double to cash this bet.

The Prediction

After a rough defensive series in the desert, the Pirates really need to have a defense-heavy game. And when you need one of those, Skenes is here to do the job.

The Pirates have the best pitching matchup in the majors right now, and there’s not really a close second. The Astros are going to need to hold Pittsburgh to two runs or less to win this matchup, and with Jake Bloss on the mound, that’s not likely. The Pirates have the edge here.