John Fredericks: MLB Picks for Saturday, August 12, 2023
JOHN FREDERICKS: MLB PICKS FOR SATURDAY, AUGUST 12, 2023 – The Pirates of April are back in August! It was May, June and July that sunk them. If all summer months started with “A” they would be World Series contenders!
After a wipeout Thursday, losing -$465, the worst day of the year for me, I took Friday off to re-evaluate my strategies. This leaves us at minus -$640 for the year.
I always get red hot in August and September so let’s get back on track. There are some very compelling trends here to look at.
First off, the Arizona Diamondbacks have totally collapsed. After spending much of the season in first place in the very tough N.L. West, they’ve lost nine in a row and they are 0 for August. In fact, they have not won a game since the trade deadline. At home today against the tanking Padres, they should win this game, with their ace Gallen on the mound and the Pods wheeling out 50-year Rich Hill. We cannot bet this team until they win. Or can we?
The Cubs are winning but impossible to handicap. Whatever it looks like–this team does not follow the script.
I feel like Tampa Bay is a little chippy since a bruising July and losing their ace for the season, and might be worth watching.
The Phillies are going to get hot, but can they beat teams that aren’t a dumpster fire?
Does Texas ever lose a game?
And who the hell can figure the Giants out?
The Mariners have won nine in a row since unloading their closer, Paul Seward. I like them tonight with Kirby, but not at -160. The O’s are a very good club.
Houston is going to stay focused down the stretch, and I’m likely to bet them every day now. If Jon Singleton hits like he did last night, that lineup is the best in baseball.
So here we go:
2023Â Season RecorD: 245-205-1 -$640
*Based on all wagers at $100 per game at money or run line odds as specified in Draft Kings. Note: If money line is -$150, we are laying $150 to win $100, etc.  If we take +$130 and we win, we win $130 for our $100.
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Reds at Pirates (Even)
The Pirates burned me at home twice last week. We all know this Reds team hits, it’s their pitching metrics that are putrid.
If Cincinnati is going to stay viable in the playoff race, these are games they have to win. Brandon Williamson has been up and down, but his metrics are really soft.
Andre Jackson will be getting his first major league start for the Bucs. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 18. Remember when the Pirates were an exciting young team in April? The Buccos are loose and having fun again. Let’s Make The Pirates Great Again! It’s August, baby!
Pick: Pirates (EVEN)
PODS at D-Backs (-140)
Ok, I did it. I bet Arizona. Can they lose every game for the rest of the year? Zac Gallen is 9-1 in the desert, with a 1.90 ERA and 87 K’s in 74 innings. The sinking over-stuffed, over-paid and whine machine Padres counter with a relic in Rich Hill, throwing 75 MPH. Please Rich, play golf with your grand-kids and spare us this spectacle.
Pick: D-Backs (-140)
Angels at Houston (-170)
These two teams are heading in opposite directions and look for the Astros to win behind J.P. France, looking for his ninth victory on the season. France has developed into Houston’s most reliable starter, hard to believe as that is. Let’s see how their six-man rotation does. The key to this team is their bullpen needs a rest, and Ryan Stanek and Montero have to step up.
Pick: Astros (-170)
Cubs at Toronto (-110)
When is Toronto going to break out? Their bullpen at home has been one the best in baseball with an ERA of 3.31. The Cubs bullpen on the road is a 4.27 ERA hot mess. The Cubs Justin Steele has spit up 16 hits and nine earned runs in his last two starts. On the flip, the Jays Chris Bassett has an ERA of 2.70 over his last five outings. For the season at the Rogers Center, Bassitt has an ERA of 2.56 in 11 starts with opponents hitting .180 against him.
 Pick: Toronto (-110)
 Twins (+120) at Phillies
Why have the Twins lost four straight? Why is Philadelphia hot, winning six of seven and pounding Minnesota for 13 runs last night? The Phillies have beat up on the bottom dwellers of society.
The Twins Pablo Lopez is better than Taijuan Walker, which is evident in ever comparable metric you can think of. The Twins need a win on the road, this is their best chance.
 Pick: Twinkies (+120)
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